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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $266.32EOD only
Max Pain
$262.50
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.14
1.6% from close
Price Gap
-3.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AMZN is in a pinning, bullish flow regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$384.3M) and heavy call premium centered below the stock. Best single trade is a premium-selling iron-condor or call-credit structure into the Apr 30 event (use May01 expiry) to harvest the skew and pinning; a directional call spread is the alternative if you want to ride upside flow. Key risk is a guidance-driven gap outside the tight EM (May01 EM ±$20.50) that defeats dealer pinning and causes a rapid repricing.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.0% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term-structure jump into 2026-05-01 (ATM 45.8%) vs 2026-04-24 (ATM 33.5%) — that ~12.3 vol-pt sizing defines crush and option pricing for trades.
📈GEX +$384.3M concentrated at $232.50/$235.00 — strong pinning pressure near current price.
🔥May01 ATM IV 45.8% vs Apr24 33.5% → ~12.3 vol-pt priced for the event (defines expected crush).
💰Top premium flow dominated by calls ($97.2M at $225.00), signaling institutional upside positioning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (TBD) (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (15d): : : ±$6.72 (2.9%) [226.92 - 240.37]
  • 2026-05-01 (22d): ±$20.50 (8.8%) [213.15 - 254.15]

IV Setup

Term structure: ATM IV is low-mid 30s for April expirations (2026-04-24 ATM 33.5%) but spikes into the May01 expiry (ATM 45.8%), indicating the Apr30 event is being priced into the May01 slice.

Crush estimate: ~12.3 vol pts (45.8% -> 33.5% between 2026-05-01 and 2026-04-24 slices); expect realized IV to compress toward the low-30s after the event unless guidance creates elevated forward vol.

Skew: Call-heavy flow (top premium flow concentrated in calls at 225/230/235/240) with P/C volume and OI ratios low (P/C vol 0.45, OI 0.59). Puts show occasional elevated IV in very near-dated strikes, but overall calls dominate both flow and premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-09-30, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in pre-computed fields

Directional bias: Recent quarters skew to upside (3 of last 4 quarters saw positive surprises), supports a bullish tilt

Key Levels

1$232.50
2$225.00
3$220.00
4$235.00
5$250.00
6EM: $213.15-$254.15 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Very large call premium concentrated at $225.00 ($97,196,368 net call premium) and heavy call premium at $230.00/$235.00/$240.00.

Institutional / directional buyers are skewed to upside; dealers are short those calls and will buy underlying into weakness (pinning), which supports upward pressure and a higher chance of pin behavior near 225–235.

Top OI strikes include $275/$300/$250 calls but near-term concentrated call GEX +$12.2M at $235.00 and +$6.1M at $232.50.

Near-term dealer hedging creates pin magnets in the $232–235 area (within ±1% of spot), making those levels sticky absent a gap move.

Strategies

Short iron-constrictor (earnings sell)
Sell 230/225 put vertical and sell 245/250 call vertical — expiry 2026-05-01
Credit: $2.00-$3.00
Max loss: $3.00
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $227.50 / $247.50
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings if IV for May01 remains elevated (ATM ~45.8%) and bid/ask spreads are tight.
Dealer pinning (GEX +$384.3M, concentrated near 232–235) and heavy call premium suggest selling premium centered just outside the pin band captures decay and expected post-earnings crush.
Outperforms: AMZN stays inside the May01 EM (213.15-254.15) and pins between 225–235; time decay + post-earnings IV compression work in seller's favor.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap >~4-8% at open breaches the wings (gap beyond EM), or liquidity evaporates widening fills.
Long straddle (vol buy)
Buy 235 Straddle — expiry 2026-05-01 (buy 235C + 235P)
Debit: $18.00-$24.00
Max loss: Debit paid (~$18.00-$24.00)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx $217-$259 (depending on entry price)
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if IV for May01 is elevated but not yet compressing; avoid after a large IV pop.
May01 ATM IV 45.8% implies a large priced-in move (~±$20.50). Buying vol is appropriate if you expect a guidance surprise that pushes realized > priced move. Use 235 strike because it's nearest liquid ATM.
Outperforms: Actual move on/after earnings exceeds market EM (>~$20.50) or guidance causes a big gap; performs despite IV crush if move is large.
Underperforms: Stock pins close to strike (235) and realized move < cost; or IV collapses more than priced in without strong directional move.
Bull call spread (flow-aligned directional)
Buy 235/250 call vertical — expiry 2026-05-01
Debit: $4.50-$7.50
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: $10.00
BE: Approx $239.50 (if paid $4.50) to $242.50 (if paid $7.50)
Trigger: Enter if you want exposure to the call-heavy flow and expect an upside beat or guidance lift; better to scale in before a big IV run toward May01.
Call-heavy positioning and institutional buying at 225–235/250 indicate asymmetric upside skew; the 235/250 spread captures that upside while limiting debit and Vega risk vs a naked call.
Outperforms: Stock gaps or rallies through 240–250 on positive print/guidance; outperforms a naked long call because it caps cost and reduces Vega exposure.
Underperforms: Earnings disappoint or stock pins/moves sideways; also loses if IV crush removes premium but stock doesn't move enough to cover spread cost.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: The May01 EM is ±$20.50 (8.8%); guidance or big surprises can produce gaps larger than the options wings and overwhelm pinning. Sellers can lose quickly on open gaps.
!IV crush impact: Expect a ~12.3 vol-pt move down from May01 to Apr24 slices; long volatility strategies require a move materially above priced EM to overcome post-earnings IV compression.
!Liquidity & execution: May01 shows heavy premium and open interest but spreads widen on OTM strikes. Use limit orders, size into liquidity (prefer strikes with demonstrable OI like 235/250).
!Sizing: Given dealer pinning (GEX +$384.3M) and concentrated call flow, keep short premium positions to 1-2% of account risk per iron-condor structure; directional spreads can be sized slightly larger but still capped.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for 2026-05-01 (ATM 45.8%) vs 2026-04-24 (ATM 33.5%) — widening indicates premium to sell; collapsing reduces sellers' edge.
?Unusual near-dated activity: large 2026-04-10 and 04-13 volumes at $232.50–$235.00 (see unusual activity) — could signal short-term pinning or hedging ahead of news.
?Net premium flow at $225/$230/$235 — continued large call buying reinforces dealer pin and supports bullish skew.
?Pre-earnings guidance leaks or revenue/segment commentary that could push price outside EM guardrails (213.15-254.15).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.