base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 102.7% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Term structure: Front-week (3DTE) IV distorted with call/put IV ~285%, suggesting event risk. ATM term structure dips to 72% at 25DTE then rises to 77% by 46DTE, overall flat with no clear contango.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+60.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,280 (28.7% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentration at $390 (16,280 contracts, 28.7% below spot); Call wall at $600. Max pain for 6/18 at $270 far below spot; for 7/2 at $480 near current spot.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $500.00/$470.00 put spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $500/$470 put spread to collect elevated premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $476.56 invalidation or IV spikes above 120%.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $500.00/$470.00 put wing and $630.00/$680.00 call wing
Sell 2026-07-17 $500/$470 put wing and $630/$680 call wing to capture IV contraction.
Mgmt: Manage each wing; exit if spot breaks beyond short options.
!Front-week event risk due to extreme IV (285%) in 3DTE options.
!Put OI at $390 may act as support but could become gamma-negative if spot declines.
!High IV environment increases risk of large swings; size positions accordingly.