base 4; +1 high IV; +1 pinning regime; +1 bullish flow; -2.5 low liquidity (OI 103K, 78 strikes)
Term structure: Near-term IV ~53-56%, hump at 4/17, then declines to ~48% by June
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 6.8% (spot $202.98 vs MP $190)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$4.6M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Below $165, dealers amplify moves; strong put OI at $165 (1,387 contracts)
OI concentrations: Put wall $165 (1,387 OI), Call wall $220 (1,419 OI). Spot well above major put support.
#1cash-secured put
Sell $185 Put, 4/17 expiration (17 DTE)
High IV (55.5%) provides excellent premium. Strike is 8.9% below spot, below near-term max pain ($195 for 4/10), and above the critical $165 gamma flip. Positive GEX supports pinning.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$2.93 credit remaining). Roll down/out if spot approaches $190. Exit if spot closes below $185. Assumed bid-ask spread ~$1.00 due to low liquidity.
#2put credit spread
Sell $185 Put / Buy $180 Put, 4/17 expiration (17 DTE)
Defined-risk alternative to CSP. Captures high IV while limiting capital at risk. Strikes are below current spot and near-term max pain, within a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit if spot closes below $187. Assumed bid-ask spread ~$0.40 on the spread.
#3covered call
Sell $220 Call, 4/17 expiration (17 DTE) against 100 shares
Spot is well below the major call wall at $220 (1,419 OI). High IV provides good premium for call sellers. Strike is 8.4% above spot, offering upside participation.
Mgmt: Close call at 50% profit. Consider rolling up/out if spot approaches $215. Assumed bid-ask spread ~$1.00.
#4iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $185/$180 Put Spread & $220/$225 Call Spread, 4/17 expiration
Illustrative only due to low liquidity. Attempts to capitalize on pinning between the $165 put wall and $220 call wall. High IV supports premium.
Mgmt: Close entire position at 50% profit or if spot tests either short strike ($185 or $220). Execution risk high; likely wide bid-ask spreads.
!Low liquidity (103K total OI, 78 active strikes) — all credit estimates assume wide bid-ask spreads. Execution may be difficult.
!Earnings estimated 4/30/2026 (~30 days out) — Close or roll all short premium positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush.
!Gamma flip at ~$165 — A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure. Exit all short put positions.
!Bullish flow (Net Prem +$18.1M, P/C 0.70) suggests institutional buying pressure, which could limit upside for call sellers.
!Major OI concentrations at $165 (Put) and $220 (Call) create strong magnetic effects; price may gravitate toward these levels.