AEM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 3; +1.5 strong net premium & flow regime; -0 low volume/size constraint

Watch next session: $220C OI growth vs. volume; Any put flow >$1M notional near spot

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$18.1M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.70 — call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.69 — moderate call lean

Clear bullish premium flow with a call-dominant P/C ratio. The net positive $18.1M premium and spot trading well above max pain suggest institutional positioning favors upside continuation, albeit in a low-volume, high-IV environment.

Notable Prints

AEM 4/17/26 $220 Call

Vol: 562

OI: 1,119

Vol/OI: 0.5x

IV: 55.5%

Notional: ~$1.28M

Intent: Addition to existing bullish position (roll or scale-in)

Dual read: Could be closing long calls (bearish) or opening new shorts (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: High notional, but volume < OI suggests it's likely adjusting an existing large position rather than a fresh directional bet. Given the bullish flow regime, a roll or scale-in is more probable than closing.

AEM 4/2/26 $207.50 Call

Vol: 248

OI: 1,236

Vol/OI: 0.2x

IV: 53.4%

Notional: ~$1.31M

Intent: Near-term bullish positioning or delta hedge

Dual read: Opening long calls (bullish) or selling/writing calls (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: Very high notional for a weekly option. The low vol/OI ratio again points to activity within an existing large position. Given its proximity to spot ($202.98), this could be part of a complex structure like a ratio spread or a delta adjustment for a large holder.

AEM 1/15/27 $40 Call

Vol: 4

OI: 1,518

Vol/OI: 0.0x

IV: 47.5%

Notional: ~$2.73M

Intent: Deep ITM long-dated call activity (likely financing or leverage trade)

Dual read: Buying deep ITM calls (bullish, synthetic long) or selling them (closing long, neutral)

Read-through: Extremely high notional value driven by deep intrinsic value. Tiny volume relative to massive OI suggests minimal new flow; this is likely a legacy position. Its contribution to the bullish net premium is structural, not a new signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Activity concentrated in near-term $207.5C and $220C. Large legacy OI in deep ITM $40/$55/$140 calls.

Put additions: Minimal. Top put OI is at $165 and $150, far OTM and likely legacy hedges.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$4.6M) aligns with bullish flow, supporting a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current levels.

OI clusters: Key Call Walls: $220 (1,419 OI), $207.5 (1,236 OI). Key Put Support: $165 (2,395 OI combined). Gamma flip ~$165 acts as strong put support.

Hedging evidence: Minimal near-term protective put flow. Large, far OTM put OI clusters ($150-$165) are likely legacy portfolio insurance, not fresh hedging.

Max pain context: Current MP at $190, with spot at $203. The rising MP trend ($190→$200) and spot > MP suggest bullish drift, but positive GEX may cause resistance near call walls ($207.5, $220).

Signal vs Noise

~Deep ITM calls ($40, $55, $140): High notional flow is noise — driven by intrinsic value of legacy positions, not new directional bets.

~Low-volume prints on high OI strikes (e.g., $220C vol 562 vs OI 1119): Likely position adjustments/rolls, not fresh directional initiation.

~Far OTM put OI ($150, $165): Legacy hedging, not indicative of new bearish sentiment.

Key Conclusions

📊Bullish flow regime confirmed by +$18.1M net premium & P/C 0.70, but confidence capped by low total volume.

🧲Positive GEX (+$4.6M) and spot > Max Pain suggest a pinning/mean-reverting environment with support near $165.

⚠️Most notable prints are adjustments to large existing positions, not fresh directional bets. Watch for new high vol/OI activity.

Read the Flow analysis for AEM. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.