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AEM

Agnico Eagle Mines LimitedClose $178.15EOD only
Max Pain
$185.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.68
3.2% from close
Price Gap
+6.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
28
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.56
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AEM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AEM Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings likely around 4/30, with IV elevated (58%) and a strong historical pattern of beating estimates. The setup favors selling premium due to high IV and a pinning gamma regime, but the lack of a confirmed date adds risk.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV; +0.5 bullish flow; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: Historical beat rate is 100% (4/4) with consistent positive surprises. Stock tends to gap up post-earnings, but IV is high, making crush plays attractive if you can time entry.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (4/30). No explicit calendar confirmation—monitor for official announcement.
📈Perfect 4/4 EPS beat history with consistent positive surprises. Strong directional bias up.
💰Net premium flow +$18.1M bullish, dominated by OTM call buying. Sentiment supports upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$4.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$18.1M, P/C 0.70)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 6.8% (spot $202.98 vs MP $190)
Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Below $165, dealers amplify moves; spot is well above, supporting stability.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (30 days)estimated (EPS date provided, no explicit calendar date)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$16.85 (8.3%)
  • 4/24 (24d): ±$22.35 (11.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated near-term (53-56% for Apr expiries), decaying to ~48% by summer. No sharp single-expiration kink, suggesting date uncertainty.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~40% range

Skew: Flow is net bullish (P/C 0.70), but OI is concentrated at $165 PUT (support) and $220 CALL (resistance).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute exact % move from provided data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive price reaction bias.

Directional bias: Likely gap up given perfect beat history and recent bullish flow.

Key Levels

1$165 gamma flip & put OI wall
2$220 call OI wall
3EM (31d): $185 - $220
4Max Pain: $190

Flow Highlights

Massive net call premium +$18.1M, with huge buying in deep OTM calls ($40, $55, $140)

Speculative upside bets or hedging, indicating bullish sentiment.

Heavy OI at $165 PUT (2,395 total) and $220 CALL (2,538 total)

Defined range between key strikes; pin risk between $190-$200.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $185 PUT / Buy $180 PUT x Sell $220 CALL / Buy $225 CALL 5/01
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 187.50 - 217.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before estimated earnings (if IV > 50%)
Capitalizes on high IV and pinning gamma. Strikes calibrated to 31d EM ($185-$220) with buffer. Max pain at $190 supports range-bound action.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $187.50-$217.50, IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap beyond breakevens; especially vulnerable below $185 given historical beats.
Bull Put Spread (Directional/Bullish)
Sell $185 PUT / Buy $180 PUT 5/01
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $1.80
BE: $183.20
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $195-$200.
Leverages 100% historical beat rate, bullish flow, and spot above max pain. Defines risk below key gamma flip.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $185; benefits from IV crush and positive earnings reaction.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $185 on bad news.
Long Straddle (Volatility/Event)
Buy $202.50 straddle 5/01
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$186 & ~$219 (est. cost ~$16.85)
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips below 50% before event, anticipating expansion.
High IV makes debit expensive, but perfect beat history suggests potential for larger-than-expected move. High-risk given elevated IV.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 31d EM (8.3%); stock gaps beyond breakevens.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $202.50, IV crushes significantly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 31d EM is ±8.3%, but historical beats could drive a larger upside move, risking short call side of condor.
!IV crush: High starting IV (58%) means crush could be severe (~15-20 pts), hurting long vol positions.
!Date uncertainty: No explicit earnings date increases timing risk for short-dated strategies.
!Liquidity: OI (103k) and volume (11.8k) are moderate; stick to strikes with high OI ($165, $220, $190).

What to Watch

?Confirmation of earnings date (likely 4/30 AMC)
?IV trajectory in April expiries for a sharper kink to confirm timing
?Spot behavior relative to max pain ($190) and gamma flip ($165)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.