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AEM

Agnico Eagle Mines LimitedClose $178.15EOD only

Max Pain

$185.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.68

3.2% from close

Price Gap

+6.85

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AEM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AEM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, but elevated volatility and distance from max pain create headwinds. Confidence: 6/10. Expect a grind higher toward $195-$200, supported by positive GEX and bullish flow, but moves will be choppy within the high-IV range.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 7; -1 for data quality constraint (moderate OI, less precise GEX). Bullish GEX/flow alignment remains, but weaker gravitational pull from max pain.

Supports: GEX +$4.6M (pinning), Net Premium +$18.1M (bullish), P/C ratios < 0.70
Conflicts: Spot 6.8% above nearest max pain ($190), IV extremely high at 57.7%

📌Strong pinning regime (GEX +$4.6M) favors range-bound, mean-reverting action.

📈Bullish flow (Net Prem +$18M) provides underlying directional bias.

⚠️IV >55% is punitive for long premium; favors selling strategies.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 57.7% — extremely high, creating a strong headwind for long premium strategies and favoring premium sellers.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.6M — positive gamma concentrated, creating a strong pinning force that suppresses large directional moves near-term.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net Premium +$18.1M with P/C vol 0.70 — clear institutional call buying/bullish positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $202.98 is above all near-term max pain levels ($190-$195) — creates a gravitational pull lower, conflicting with bullish flow.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $190 to $200 over 18 expirations, GEX sign is stable positive, and bullish flow regime is consistent. This suggests a multi-week drift higher, not just a one-week pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$192.20$213.75

Pinning dominates; a break below $192.20 (2d EM low) would signal pin failure.

Next 1 week

$186.80$219.15

Bullish flow and rising max pain support a test of the upper EM bound; $186.80 is key support.

Next 2 weeks

$187.28$218.68

Structural call wall at $220 is the ultimate target; failure below $187 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $190 (2026-03-27); $192 (2026-04-02); $195 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $192.20/$213.75; 1w $186.80/$219.15

Support: $165.00 · $165.00 · $150.00

Resistance: $220.00 · $207.50 · $220.00

Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,387

Structural: Major call OI wall at $220 caps multi-week upside. Major put floor at $150-$165 provides distant but significant support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.6M

DEX: +4.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$165 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,387)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX implies dealers are short volatility and will hedge by buying dips and selling rallies, reinforcing the pin. A move below the ~$165 gamma flip would trigger significant dealer delta selling, accelerating a downturn.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 57.7% — extremely elevated, indicating high single-stock risk premium. Implication: selling volatility has high nominal edge.

Term structure: Contango near-term (53.4% 2d → 52.1% 10d), then hump at 17d (55.5%). Kink at 4/17 expiry likely pricing an event. Steep drop to ~49% by June.

Skew: High near-term IV vs. lower mid-term IV supports calendar spreads: sell the 4/17 (55.5%) expiry, buy a longer-dated (e.g., 6/18 at 49.3%) expiry for a ~6 vol-pt differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$18.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.70, P/C OI 0.69 confirm call dominance.

Directional prints: $220C saw 562 vol vs. 1,119 OI — could be opening or closing. $207.5C saw 248 vol vs. 1,236 OI — likely opening given high OI. Interpretation: consistent with bullish flow, likely call buying to open.

Unusual: Massive premium in deep ITM calls ($40C: $2.7M net). This is likely dividend/arbitrage or complex hedging, not directional speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$165: a break below triggers accelerated dealer selling.

!Extreme IV (57.7%): susceptible to sharp crush, damaging long premium positions.

!Spot vs. Max Pain: 6.8% above creates a persistent gravitational pull lower.

!Earnings ~4/30: unconfirmed date adds event risk to longer-dated positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	GEX positive but VIX context unknown and IV >55% adds tail risk. Prefer defined-risk put spreads instead.	VIX spike or IV expansion breaks wings.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $190/$185 put spread (4/10 or 4/17). Targets max pain convergence with defined risk.	Break below $186.80 (1w EM low).
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $210C or $215C (4/17). Collect rich premium against bullish bias.	Sharp upside move past short call.
Long calls	Weak	IV >55% is punitive. Only consider if buying deep ITM for delta with less vega exposure.	IV crush and/or time decay.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Contrarian against flow. If taken, $200/$195 put spread (4/10) bets on pullback to max pain.	Bullish flow and pinning push spot higher.
Calendar/Diagonal spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $205C (IV 55.5%), buy 6/18 $205C (IV 49.3%). Benefits from IV crush post-4/17 event.	Directional move beyond strikes erodes edge.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/2027 $130C (low IV 47.5%), sell 4/17 $210C against it. Leverages long-term bullish thesis with high near-term premium.	Capital intensive; short leg pin risk.
Short stock	Weak	Against bullish flow and positive GEX; only for very short-term tactical fade.	Pinning and flow force a squeeze higher.
Long stock	Moderate	Directional alignment with flow, but entry here is poor due to distance from max pain. Wait for pullback toward $195.	Immediate pullback to max pain.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread

Sell $190/$185 Put Spread, Exp 4/17

Capitalizes on the pinning regime and bullish flow by selling puts at a key max pain/support level ($190). The 30-45 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis, allowing time for the pin to work while collecting high premium from elevated IV.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $188.70

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $186.80 (1w EM low).

Traders with a bullish bias seeking defined-risk premium collection.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell 4/17 $205C, Buy 6/18 $205C

Exploits the ~6 vol-point differential in the term structure (55.5% vs 49.3%). Sells expensive near-term vol (likely event-priced) and buys cheaper longer-dated vol. Profits from IV crush and time decay differential if spot stays near $205.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on IV contraction.

Mgmt: Close after 4/17 expiry or if the IV differential collapses. Monitor for a large directional move away from $205.

Volatility traders looking for a non-directional play on rich near-term IV.

LEAPS Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy 1/2027 $130C, Sell 4/17 $210C

A structural, longer-dated expression of the bullish thesis. The deep ITM LEAPS provides high delta with lower vega, while the short $210C collects rich premium against the multi-week $220 target. The extra time (290 DTE) provides durability through earnings and volatility cycles, improving risk/reward versus a simple covered call.

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: Cost of LEAPS minus net credits

BE: Dynamic; lowers effective cost basis of LEAPS.

Mgmt: Roll short call up and out if challenged. Hold LEAPS for core bullish view.

Investors with a multi-month bullish view and larger capital, seeking to generate income against a LEAPS position.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot pulls back to $195 (confluence of max pain and round number) → Enter bull put spread: Sell $190/$185 put spread (4/17).

IFIf IV on 4/17 expiry spikes above 60% → Initiate reverse calendar: Sell 4/17 $205C, Buy 6/18 $205C.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $186.80 (1w EM low support) → Exit all short put/bullish premium positions.

EXITIf IV on 4/17 expiry drops below 45% (significant crush) → Take profit on reverse calendar spread.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bullish pinning within a high-volatility range, favoring a grind toward $195-$220. Invalidation is a close below $186.80. The regime favors selling premium (puts/put spreads) and exploiting rich near-term vol (calendars). Top Plays: 1) Bull put spread for defined-risk income, 2) Reverse calendar for vol arbitrage, 3) LEAPS diagonal for a longer-term, income-generating bullish position.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.