Home Options AAPLReports

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $293.08EOD only

Max Pain

$297.50

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.51

1.9% from close

Price Gap

+4.42

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.70

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by positive dealer gamma ($+33.4M) and spot below max pain (~$295), suggesting upward drift over multi-week horizon. Near-term resistance at $280 caps initial upside; mixed flow and distance from MP keep confidence moderate.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed flow despite gamma); +1 GEX positive (pinning support); -1 spot 6.7% below MP (needs catalyst); +0.5 VIX 19 (low fear). Net=4.5.

Supports: Positive dealer gamma, normal vol, spot below MP.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, resistance at $280, spot far from MP.

🟢Positive gamma $+33.4M supports price stability and drift.

🟡Flow mixed; no clear directional conviction from premiums.

🔴Spot 6.7% below max pain; needs catalyst to close gap.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs typical range; VIX 19 moderate.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$33.4M, positive gamma with flip near $240 (far below spot).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed put/call flow; no net directional premium bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~6.7% below max pain ($295-298), suggesting upside pinning attraction.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to 2 weeks; gamma pinning and normal vol support medium-term drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$270.31$279.99

Upside towards $280 resistance; gamma support.

Next 1 week

$266.07$284.22

Approach $285 resistance; momentum builds.

Next 2 weeks

$261.67$288.62

Target $295 max pain zone if catalyst emerges.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $295 (2026-06-26); $298 (2026-06-29); $295 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $270.31/$279.99; 1w $266.07/$284.22

Support: $261.67

Resistance: $280.00 · $285.00 · $288.62

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,441 (12.8% below spot)

Structural: Support $261.67; resistance $280, $285, $288.62. Gamma flip $240. EM guardrails 2d $270.31-$279.99, 1w $266.07-$284.22. Max pain pins $295-$298.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+33.4M

DEX: +118.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,441 (12.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net gamma +$33.4M, delta +118.2M shares. Gamma flip ~$240. Positive gamma supports pinning near max pain.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AAPL IV normal relative to VIX 19, no extreme pricing.

Term structure: Likely flat to slight upward slope with event kinks around weekly expiries 06-26 and 06-29.

Skew: Skew not provided; normal vol regime no clear arbitrage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$338.7M bearish, but OTM call volume heavy; mixed flow.

Directional prints: 32.3 call 280 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 105672 vs OI 469 (225x); OTM call bought; bullish. 32.6 call 282.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 49385 vs OI 278 (178x); OTM call bought; bullish. 33.7 call 285 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 84763 vs OI 711 (119x); OTM call bought; bullish.

Unusual: 33.4 put 272.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 38676 vs OI 342 (113x); ITM put bought; hedge/ bearish. 31.3 call 287.5 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 6175 vs OI 133 (46x); OTM call bought; next week. 38.6 put 262.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 6648 vs OI 126 (53x); OTM put bought; cheap hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below support $261.67 triggers selloff.

!Failure to overcome $280 resistance leads to range bound trade.

!Unexpected volatility or macro event raises VIX.

!Spot fails to converge to max pain, deflating gamma thesis.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00/$305.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma positive, spot below max pain, OTM call flow supports upside. Spread cheapens premium decay.	Capped upside at short strike; break below $270 invalidates.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-08-21 $255.00/$245.00 put spread Why now: Support at $261.67, OTM put IV rich, positive gamma profile benefits from drift.	Selloff below short put if support breaks; max loss defined.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00 call Why now: Earnings catalyst, heavy 280 call OI, positive dealer gamma supports upside momentum.	Time decay accelerates if move delayed; high premium requires large move.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00/$305.00 call spread

Captures upside to $305 while limiting cost via spread, benefiting from positive dealer gamma and earnings drift.

Why this play: Leverages bullish gamma & OTM call flow with defined risk, outperforms naked call in moderate confidence setup.

Debit: $1.98-$2.42

Max loss: $2.42

BE: $297.42

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $261.67; consider early close if IV spikes before earnings.

Moderately bullish traders seeking capped risk and cost efficiency.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-08-21 $255.00/$245.00 put spread

Sells OTM puts to profit from stability or drift, using high put IV and strong support level.

Why this play: Collects premium from rich IV and support at $261.67, but less direct upside capture than call spread.

Credit: $1.53-$1.87

Max loss: $8.13

BE: $253.13

Mgmt: Close if spot nears $261.67; roll down if breached.

Income-focused bulls who expect limited downside and time decay.

Long Call

Buy 2026-08-21 $295.00 call

Outright bullish bet with unlimited gain potential, fueled by heavy call OI and earnings catalyst.

Why this play: Highest upside but largest premium outlay; less suitable given moderate confidence and nearby resistance.

Debit: $4.97-$6.08

Max loss: $6.08

BE: $301.08

Mgmt: Set stop at $261.67; consider partial profit at $305.

Aggressive traders with high conviction and tolerance for larger drawdown.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot closes above $280 with rising volume → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $295/$305 call spread (AAPL_01) within $1.98-$2.42.

IFIF spot holds above $261.67 after a test → THEN sell 2026-08-21 $255/$245 put spread (AAPL_02) for $1.53-$1.87 credit.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $261.67 → THEN close all positions.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with resistance at $280 and support $261.67. Preferred play is bull call spread on break above $280; put credit spread on support hold. Exit on support break.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.