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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $298.01EOD only

Max Pain

$295.00

Next expiry Jun 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.78

1.3% from close

Price Gap

-3.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 18, 2026 close

AAPL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AAPL near max pain $298 with positive gamma pinning. Normal vol, mixed flow, and guards suggest range-bound trading. Thesis: neutral to slightly bullish as support holds above $290 for the week.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +1 spot near MP; +1 VIX 17. Total 9.

Supports: Spot near max pain, positive gamma, low VIX, guards holding.
Conflicts: Resistance at $297.5 and $300, mixed flow, put OI concentration below spot.

🎯Spot at max pain $298, pinning likely

🛡️2d guards $292.37-$301.66 contain range

⚖️Mixed flow with 59K put OI below spot, weak support?

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV at normal levels vs 30d HV, no extreme.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma $305.6M, pinning near $298. Gamma flip ~$240.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with slight put skew; net premium neutral.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot near max pain $298. 0.2% from MP, pinning likely.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Spot at max pain, positive gamma pinning, and mixed flow suggest short-term range-bound action until expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$292.37$301.66

Range-bound within guards

Next 1 week

$289.16$304.86

Holding above support, uptrend if volume increases

Next 2 weeks

$284.74$309.29

Uptrend if key support $284.74 holds

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $298 (2026-06-22); $295 (2026-06-24); $298 (2026-06-26)

EM guardrails: 2d $292.37/$301.66; 1w $289.16/$304.86

Support: $284.74

Resistance: $297.50 · $300.00 · $309.29

Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,643 (19.2% below spot)

Structural: 2d guards $292.37/$301.66; 1w guards $289.16/$304.86; key support $284.74; resistance $297.5, $300, $309.29; gamma flip $240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+305.6M

DEX: +124.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,643 (19.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$305.6M, DEX +124M shares, gamma flip near $240.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AAPL IV near ~20% vs VIX 17, slightly rich but typical for stock.

Term structure: Term structure flat to backward near expiry, normal.

Skew: Skew neutral; no clear vol structure edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $70M call buying, P/C vol 0.90, OI 0.69.

Directional prints: 30.9 put 302.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 94.9 aggressive put buy/bearish. Preferred: bought put. 7.7 put 297.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 38.8 low IV; likely short put (bullish) or buy. Preferred: sold put. 15.6 call 302.5 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 35.9 cheap OTM call; bought lotto or sold. Preferred: bought call.

Unusual: 30.9 put 302.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Highest vol/OI 94.9; unusual put activity. 7.7 put 297.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Very low IV, high vol/OI 38.8; unusual put. 15.6 call 302.5 OTM 2026-06-22 — Outlier call vol/OI 35.9; unusual call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold $292.37 breaches 2d guard, risk to $289.

!Resistance at $300 caps upside if no catalyst.

!Put OI concentration below spot signals potential downside pressure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $280.00/$270.00 put wing and $320.00/$330.00 call wing Why now: Thesis expects range-bound; iron condor harvests premium with defined risk.	Breakout above $310 or below $280 from catalyst.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-31 $280.00/$265.00 put spread Why now: Thesis bullish-neutral, guard at $292.37. Use defined risk below $290.	Break below $290 to $289 triggers loss.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-31 $315.00/$330.00 call spread Why now: Thesis leans bullish with short-term bullish lean. Use defined risk debit spread.	Rejection at $300 or catalyst failure caps upside.

Top Plays

Range-Bound Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-31 $280.00/$270.00 put wing and $320.00/$330.00 call wing

Short put wing below support and call wing above resistance to profit from low volatility and range trading.

Why this play: Best matches neutral-to-slightly-bullish thesis with max pain pinning. Harvests premium with defined risk.

Credit: $2.71-$3.32

Max loss: $6.68

BE: 276.68 / 323.32

Mgmt: Close if spot breaks $282 or $318; roll untested side to collect more premium.

Traders expecting AAPL to stay between $280 and $320 through expiration.

Bullish Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $280.00/$265.00 put spread

Sell put spread below key support; collects premium with stop-out near $285.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish-neutral lean and guard at $292; defined risk below $290. Outranks bull call due to lower cost and higher probability.

Credit: $1.86-$2.28

Max loss: $12.72

BE: $277.72

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $285; roll down to lower strikes if necessary.

Traders who are mildly bullish and want income with defined risk.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $315.00/$330.00 call spread

Debit call spread targeting resistance break; limited loss if upside fails.

Why this play: Captures upside but requires breakout above $315; lower probability given resistance at $300. Less preferred than conservative spreads.

Debit: $2.24-$2.73

Max loss: $2.73

BE: $317.73

Mgmt: Monitor for breakout; close if spot not above $315 by mid-expiration.

Aggressive traders with high conviction in a near-term rally above $315.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $292.37 for one day, THEN → enter iron condor: sell $280/$270 put wing and $320/$330 call wing (candidate aapl_iron_condor_1).

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot breaches $289.16 (1w guard), THEN → close put credit spread (aapl_put_credit_spread_1) and adjust iron condor put wing to lower strikes.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $284.74 (key support), THEN → exit all strategies immediately.

Tactical Summary

Range-bound near max pain $298. Iron condor preferred for premium. Use 2d guard $292.37 as entry trigger. Risk to 1w guard $289.16; below $284.74 exit all.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.