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AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $308.82EOD only
Max Pain
$300.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.54
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-8.82
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AAPL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by positive GEX, bullish flow, spot above max pain, and low VIX. Upside potential to $310-$314 with resistance at $320.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; GEX/flow aligned +2; GEX pinning +1; spot 1.1% above MP +0.5; VIX 17 +1. Total 9.5, adjusted to 9.0 for conservatism.
Supports: GEX +$520M, bullish flow, spot above MP, VIX 17
Conflicts: Resistance $310-$320, gamma flip far below $240
🟢GEX massive positive, pinning supports
📈Bullish flow dominates; low P/C
⚠️Resistance at $310 may cap near-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol; VIX 17 supportive for further upside without volatility drag.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$520M, strongly positive gamma pinning near $300-$305. Spot above MP provides magnetic pull up.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium; call activity elevated, P/C low.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~$308.5, 1.1% above max pain $305, typical for bullish pinning.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Strong GEX and flow combined with low VIX sustain directional bias beyond near term; range $296-$320 supports multi-week horizon.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$305.43$311.22
GEX/flow support; target $310 resistance.
Next 1 week
$302.21$314.44
Support $302; break $310 opens $314.
Next 2 weeks
$296.08$320.58
Range $296-$320; gamma flip distant, but risk of mean reversion if no catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $305 (2026-05-26); $300 (2026-05-27); $300 (2026-05-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $305.43/$311.22; 1w $302.21/$314.44
Support: $305.00 · $296.08
Resistance: $310.00 · $320.00 · $320.58
Gamma flip: ~$240.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,556 (22.2% below spot)
Structural: Support $296 (2w low), resistance $310/$320. Max pain $305 immediate magnet. Gamma flip ~$240 (put OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+520.0M

DEX: +154.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$240 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 58,556 (22.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$520M, DEX +154.8M shares net long gamma. Positive gamma pinning near $300-$305; flip at ~$240.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV elevated vs VIX but normal for event risk; likely mean-reverting.

Term structure: Contango; longer-dated IV higher reflecting uncertainty.

Skew: Put skew suggests hedging, but call interest rising. Opportunity: call spreads on bullish thesis.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call buying $222.6M, P/C vol 0.43, bullish.

Directional prints: 11.7 call 312.5 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 31.2, likely bought; aggressive call buying. 19.2 put 310 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 25.4, likely bought; bearish put buying.

Unusual: 16.1 call 310 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 17.9, IV 16.1%; high relative to OI; opening call buying. 15.5 put 307.5 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 15.4, unusual put activity; possible hedging. 17.1 call 312.5 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 14.3, IV 17.1%; repeated call buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot below max pain ($305) could trigger selling
!Resistance at $310/$320 may cap further upside
!Gamma flip at $240 far but if triggered would destabilize
!VIX spike could reverse bullish flow

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-17 $310.00/$320.00 call spread
Why now: Positive GEX, bullish flow, and support near $300 provide favorable risk/reward.
Upside capped at $320, risk of theta decay if stock consolidates.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $335.00/$345.00 call spread
Why now: Positive flow, low VIX, defined risk.
Max loss is debit paid.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-08-21 $280.00/$265.00 put spread
Why now: Support at $300, defined risk.
Max loss if spot drops below short strike.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-08-21 $335.00 call
Why now: Bullish flow and positive GEX.
Total premium loss if declines.

Top Plays

#1
Earnings Run-Up Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $310.00/$320.00 call spread
Bullish call spread leveraging positive flow and GEX, expiring just before earnings to capture expected upward move.
Why this play: Expires before earnings, directly targets $310-$314 upside with defined risk and low cost. Best risk/reward alignment with thesis.
Debit: $3.94-$4.81
Max loss: $4.81
BE: $314.81
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or 2:1 loss; adjust if spot closes below $305.
Traders seeking high probability, defined-risk bullish play with catalyst timing.
#2
Post-Earnings OTM Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $335.00/$345.00 call spread
OTM call spread after earnings, low IV environment allows cheap upside exposure with defined risk.
Why this play: Higher potential return with low cost; benefits from continued rally post-earnings.
Debit: $1.84-$2.25
Max loss: $2.25
BE: $337.25
Mgmt: Hold for 40-60% of max gain; exit if spot drops below $305.
Traders bullish beyond $335 with longer time horizon and higher risk tolerance.
#3
Unlimited Upside Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $335.00 call
Outright long call on positive flow and GEX; high risk but high reward with no cap on gains.
Why this play: Direct expression of bullish view; unlimited upside if stock surges post-earnings.
Debit: $5.11-$6.24
Max loss: $6.24
BE: $341.24
Mgmt: Trailing stop at 20% loss; take profits on sharp moves above $350.
Aggressive traders seeking maximum upside leverage and willing to risk full premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot dips to $305 support and holds above $305 → Enter bull_call_spread_1: buy 2026-07-17 $310/$320 call spread
IFSpot breaks above $310 with volume → Enter AAPL_bull_call_01: $335/$345 call spread or AAPL_long_call_01: $335 call
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $305 → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with upside to $310-$314; key support $305. Use 7/17 bull call spread for defined risk near support, or longer-dated calls on breakout. Invalidate if $305 breaks.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.