Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (43.3%), elevated in May, normalizing beyond
Spot vs MP: Above by 2.1% (spot $79.61 vs MP $78)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$32.0M)
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Massive put OI at $75 creates a strong support/magnet. Price action likely mean-reverting above this level.
OI concentrations: Call walls: $90 (40K), $84 (21K), $85 (18K). Put wall: $75 (26K).
#1put spread
Sell $77.5 / $75 Put Spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Anchors to the massive $75 put wall (26K OI). Spot is above max pain for this expiry ($82.5). Positive GEX supports pinning. 17 DTE avoids earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.29 credit). Exit if price closes below $77.50. Do not hold through earnings.
#2iron condor
Sell $77.5 / $75P x $84 / $86C Iron Condor 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Plays the pinning range between key OI levels: $75 put wall and $84/$85 call walls. Expected move is ±$5.80, placing short strikes well within. High positive GEX favors mean reversion.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll untested side if one short strike is breached. Close entirely before earnings.
#3covered call
Own stock, sell $84 Covered Call 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Sells into the $84 call wall (21K OI) and the 4/24 max pain of $75, suggesting resistance overhead. Collects theta with a high probability of keeping the stock.
Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if price approaches $84. Close before earnings to avoid assignment uncertainty.
#4calendar spread
Sell $80 Put 2026-04-10 (10 DTE), Buy $80 Put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on term structure: near-dated IV (34.5%) is lower than longer-dated (40.4%). Sells rapidly decaying short-dated theta while hedging with a longer-dated long put. Position is delta-neutral and benefits from pinning.
Mgmt: Close when short put decays to 20% of its value or 5-7 DTE. Exit before earnings on the short leg.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-14 (~2 weeks). Close all short premium positions before the announcement. Never sell naked options through earnings.
!Gamma flip at ~$75. A break below this level could see accelerated selling as dealer hedging flips from positive to negative gamma.
!Unusual call buying in the 4/17 $86 strike (13.4K volume vs 217 OI). This could indicate institutional bullish bets targeting a breakout.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$7.6M, P/C 0.61). While supporting pinning, a sustained bullish move could test call-side credit spreads.
!Max pain trend rises from $78 to $82+ over the next few months, indicating a potential upward bias in options positioning.