thetaOwl
HomeOptionsWFCReports

WFC

Wells Fargo & CompanyClose $75.81EOD only
Max Pain
$74.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.40
1.8% from close
Price Gap
-1.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
1.60
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects WFC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
WFC Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/14 (implied by IV kink). IV elevated in the 4/17 expiration (43.3% vs 34.5% pre). Historical pattern shows consistent EPS beats and positive directional bias. Best strategy is a directional debit spread to capitalize on bullish flow and beat history, with an iron condor as a premium-selling alternative given the wide expected move.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 6; +0.5 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV term structure; -0.5 limited recent earnings data (4 quarters)
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the 4/17 expiration (43.3% IV), strongly implying earnings that week. Historical EPS beat rate is 75% with an average positive move.
📅Earnings date not explicitly confirmed. IV kink at 4/17 expiration is the primary indicator. EPS estimate for 4/14 is $1.59.
📊Historical data limited to 4 quarters but shows a strong 75% beat rate with an average positive surprise.
⚠️Last quarter (Dec '25) was a slight EPS miss ($1.62 vs $1.67 est). Monitor for a potential trend change.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 39%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$32.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$7.6M, P/C 0.61)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 2.1% (spot $79.61 vs MP $78)
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Below ~$75, dealers may amplify downward moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-14 (14 days)implied (IV kink at 4/17) and explicit EPS estimate

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (17d): ±$5.80 (7.3%) [$73.81 - $85.42]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 expiration (43.3% IV) vs 34.5% for 4/10 and 41.3% for 4/24. Confirms earnings implied for that week.

Crush estimate: ~9-10 vol pts, back to ~34% (post-4/17 levels)

Skew: Flow is net bullish (P/C 0.61), but top OI shows large call walls at $90 and put concentration at $75.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute precise % move from provided data, but directional bias is strong.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters showed a positive EPS surprise. Last quarter was a slight miss (-$0.03).

Key Levels

1$75 gamma flip / major put OI
2$85 upper EM bound (approx)
3$78 max pain (nearest)
4$90 call OI wall

Flow Highlights

Massive $86 Call 4/17 buy (13,421 vol vs 217 OI, 61.9x)

Aggressive bullish bet for post-earnings move above $86.

Heavy premium to $82.50 Calls (net +$1.27M), $67.50 Calls (net +$1.09M), $86 Calls (net +$1.08M)

Consistent with bullish flow regime, targeting moves to mid-$80s.

Unusual Put activity in 4/10 expiration at $72, $78, $79 strikes (8-16x volume/OI)

Possible near-term hedge or earnings downside protection before the IV kink.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread (Directional)
Buy $80 Call / Sell $85 Call 4/17
Debit: $1.85-$2.15
Max loss: $2.00
Max gain: $3.00
BE: $82.00
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before suspected earnings (week of 4/7)
Capitalizes on bullish flow (P/C 0.61, net prem +$7.6M) and 75% historical EPS beat rate. Defined risk play into elevated IV.
Outperforms: Stock moves higher post-earnings, ideally above $85. Bullish flow and historical beat rate support.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down or fails to rally post-earnings. IV crush hurts but is mitigated by spread.
Iron Condor (Premium Sell)
Sell $74 Put / Buy $72 Put & Sell $85 Call / Buy $87.50 Call 4/17
Credit: $1.10-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
Max gain: $1.30
BE: P: $72.90 / C: $86.10
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV > 40% on 4/17 expiration.
Sells elevated IV (43.3%) with wings placed at rounded expected move boundaries ($74, $85). Wide buffer with defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the adjusted expected move bounds ($74 - $85). Benefits from IV crush.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes, especially below $74 given put OI concentration at $75.
Long Straddle (Volatility)
Buy $80 Straddle 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid (~$5.80 estimated)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $74.20 / $85.80 (approx, based on EM)
Trigger: Enter only if IV crush is less than estimated (~9 pts) or if expecting a guidance shock.
Pure play on a move larger than priced in. High risk due to certain IV crush from 43% to ~34%.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 7.3% EM significantly (>30%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $80 and IV crushes as expected.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 7.3% expected move is substantial. A break below $75 (gamma flip/major put OI) could accelerate selling.
!IV Crush: ~9-10 vol point drop expected post-earnings. Long premium strategies need a large directional move to overcome this.
!Liquidity: Excellent (968k OI). Strikes are granular ($0.5/$1 increments).
!Sizing: Given pinning gamma regime, size condors/spreads conservatively as spot may be drawn to high OI strikes ($75, $80, $90).

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/17 expiration into the suspected earnings week.
?Spot price action relative to $78 max pain and $75 gamma flip.
?Any unusual flow into 4/24 expiration, which may confirm or refine the earnings date.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.