base 5; +1 strong pinning; +1 normal IV; +1 spot at max pain; -0 earnings in 4 weeks
Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (38 DTE, IV 33.8%), normal elsewhere
Spot vs MP: At max pain ($50.00 vs spot $50.20)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$74.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$50.00 — Gamma flip estimated at $50. Positive GEX below suggests mean reversion upward.
OI concentrations: Massive OI at $50 PUT (17K) and CALL (16.6K), $45 CALL (41.5K), $38 PUT (15.9K)
#1put spread
Sell $49/$47 put spread 5/08 (38 DTE)
Sells into the highest IV (33.8%) on the term structure. Short strike ($49) is just below the major $50 OI cluster and gamma flip, providing a buffer. Strong pinning regime supports price staying above this level.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.29 credit retained). Exit if price closes below $49.50 (below gamma flip). Roll down/out only if credit >0.5x original.
#2iron condor
Sell $48/$46P x $52/$54C 5/15 (45 DTE)
Captures the flat max pain trend and wide expected move (±$3.77). Short strikes are placed outside major OI walls ($50 Puts, $52.50 Calls). Positive GEX environment favors range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out 2-3 weeks for a credit if possible. Close entire position if price breaches either short strike.
#3covered call
Sell $52.50 CALL 6/18 (79 DTE) against 100 shares
For shareholders. Sells into the large $52.50 CALL OI wall (14,794), which should act as resistance. Provides a 4.6% upside to strike plus ~2.5% premium for 79 DTE. Suitable in a pinning regime where significant breakout is less likely.
Mgmt: Roll up and out for a credit if price approaches $52. Consider closing at 80% profit to re-deploy capital.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $45 PUT 7/17 (108 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own shares. Strikes down to $45 have enormous call OI (41,465), indicating strong institutional support/buying. Strike is 10% below spot, below the expected move, and collects high absolute premium due to longer DTE.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if tested, always for a credit. Close at 70% profit. Be mindful of earnings on 4/27; consider closing before if assigned early is undesirable.
!Earnings estimated 4/27 (~4 weeks). Close or roll out of short premium positions before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Ex-dividend date not provided. Monitor for upcoming dividends which could trigger early assignment on deep ITM short calls.
!Positive GEX (+$74.8M) is strong but if broken, the gamma flip at $50 could lead to accelerated selling. $49.50 is the key invalidation.
!Unusual activity in 4/10 $49.50 and $49 puts (high volume, IV 31-34%). Suggests some near-term hedging or directional bets below $50. Reinforces our use of $49 as a short put strike.
!Long-dated max pain drops to $40-$45. Be cautious with very long DTE short puts below $45, as the pin may weaken over time.