thetaOwl
HomeOptionsUSOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $128.47EOD only
Max Pain
$126.00
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.22
5.6% from close
Price Gap
-2.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.58
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 13, 2026 close
USO AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because concentrated GEX and accumulated positioning give a meaningful mechanical bias upward, but elevated ATM IV and imminent short-dated expiries create a binary timing risk that can quickly negate the pin; alignment is strong but event/vol risk prevents a higher score.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market is biased neutral-to-bullish with a pinned upside between $130–$135 driven by concentrated dealer gamma and net premium on the call side — that structural pin makes range-bound, defined-risk premium sells the highest-expected edge right now.

Where They Diverge

High short-dated implied volatility and a kinked term-structure create a direct counterforce to premium-selling and to the bullish pin: selling premium is attractive on paper but short-dated IV spikes (and scheduled expiries) can vaporize credit and produce rapid tail moves that undermine the directional pin. Additionally, competing short-dated max-pain levels introduce range expansion risk that contradicts a clean one-way pin.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell May 15 125/120 put spread for ~ $1.10 credit (defined-risk premium sell)

Key Risk

Break and close below $100 removes dealer short-gamma support (gamma flip), which would invalidate the pin and accelerate downside toward the $85 level — defined-risk sellers would face gap exposure and directional momentum would turn sharply bearish.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for USO for 2026-04-13. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.