thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTTDReports

TTD

The Trade Desk, Inc.Close $21.02EOD only
Max Pain
$21.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.88
4.2% from close
Price Gap
+0.48
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.49
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TTD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TTD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/7 (implied by IV kink at 5/8). IV is extremely elevated (81% for May expirations), creating a high-probability IV crush setup. The stock is pinned near max pain ($23) with strong gamma support, suggesting a contained move. Best strategy is selling premium via an iron condor, with long straddle as a lower-probability, high-payout alternative.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for clear IV term structure kink; +0.5 for high absolute IV; -0 for data quality
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at the 5/8 expiration (81% vs ~61% for April), strongly implying earnings between 5/1 and 5/8.
⚠️Earnings date is implied (5/7 est.) from IV term structure kink, not explicitly confirmed.
📊100% EPS beat rate over last 4 quarters supports a bullish bias.
💰Extreme OTM put flow is alarming but may be hedges against a long stock portfolio. Don't over-interpret as a direct earnings signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 84%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$4.7M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-13.4M, P/C 0.99)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 1.3% (spot $22.69 vs MP $23)
Gamma flip: ~$18.00 — Below $18, dealers amplify moves; significant put OI at $17.50 provides a floor.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (37 days)implied (IV kink at 5/8 expiration)

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$2.28 (10.0%) [$20.42 - $24.97]
  • 5/15 (45d): ±$4.99 (22.0%) [$17.70 - $27.68]

IV Setup

Term structure: Massive kink at 5/08 expiration: IV jumps from ~63% (5/1) to 81% (5/8). Elevated IV persists through May (80%+).

Crush estimate: ~20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~60-65% range.

Skew: Heavy put premium flow at strikes $35-$42.50, but OI shows large call positions at $25, $30, $60. Skew is mixed with far OTM puts seeing unusual volume.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided. Consistent EPS beats suggest positive sentiment.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats imply potential for upside gaps.

Key Levels

1$23 Max Pain (near-term)
2$20.5/$25 38d EM bounds (approx)
3$17.50 Major Put OI Wall
4$25 Major Call/Put OI Wall
5$18 Gamma Flip

Flow Highlights

Massive net negative premium flow at OTM puts ($35-$42.50), totaling over $6M in net put buying.

Institutional hedging or speculative downside protection. Given the strikes are far OTM, this may be cheap disaster insurance rather than an earnings directional bet.

Unusual volume in 4/17 $35, $37.50, $40, $42.50 puts (3-4x OI, IV 90-170%).

Traders paying extreme premium for OTM puts expiring shortly after implied earnings date. Suggests fear of a large, negative catalyst or is part of a complex multi-leg strategy.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $20.5/$20P x $25/$25.5C 5/08
Credit: $0.45-$0.65
Max loss: $0.45
Max gain: $0.55
BE: $20.55 / $24.95
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before implied earnings date (late April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (81%) and pinning near $23. Strikes calibrated just inside the 38-day EM. High probability of success if historical pinning behavior holds.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 10% expected move ($20.42-$24.97) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes, especially below $20.50.
Long Straddle (Directional Volatility)
Buy $22.5 straddle 5/08
Max loss: Cost of straddle (~$2.80 est.)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $19.70 / $25.30
Trigger: Enter if IV dips before earnings or on a volatility spike day.
A pure bet that the extreme OTM put flow is prescient and the elevated IV understates the potential move. Requires a >12% move to profit, which is above the 10% EM but within the 22% 45-day EM.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds ~12% (breakeven width).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $22.5 and IV crushes from 81% to ~60%.
Put Credit Spread (Bullish/Bounded Risk)
Sell $20P / Buy $19P 5/08
Credit: $0.25-$0.40
Max loss: $0.75
Max gain: $0.35
BE: $19.75
Trigger: Enter on any weakness toward $22 support.
Lower capital requirement than the iron condor. Expresses a bullish bias aligned with the 100% EPS beat rate and pinning above the gamma flip ($18). Defines risk against a gap down.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $20.50, benefiting from IV crush and positive delta.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $20 and approaches the short put strike.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 10% expected move is significant. A break below $20.42 could target the $17.50 OI wall.
!IV Crush: A drop from 81% to ~60% post-earnings will devastate long premium positions. This is the primary risk for long straddle.
!Liquidity: Options are liquid (795k OI) but not hyper-liquid. Slippage may be a factor on complex multi-leg orders.
!Sizing: Due to high IV and pinning, premium-selling strategies (condor, put spread) warrant normal sizing. Long volatility strategies require small, speculative sizing.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/8 expiration as we approach the implied earnings date.
?Spot price action relative to $23 max pain and the $18 gamma flip.
?Any unusual flow in the $25 strike (large OI in both calls and puts).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.