Term structure: Humped at May expirations (~80% IV), elevated across all expirations.
Spot vs MP: Below by 1.3% (spot $22.69 vs MP $23.00)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$4.7M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$18.00 — Below $18, negative gamma from large $17.50 put OI could accelerate selling.
OI concentrations: Major put wall at $17.50 (14,219 OI), call wall at $25.00 (9,156 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $20.00 / Buy $17.50 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Sells into the massive $17.50 put OI wall (strong support) and the $20.00 put OI concentration. High IV (~80%) provides excellent credit for a defined-risk spread. Position is above the $18 gamma flip.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $19.00 (breach of short strike). Do not hold through earnings on 5/7.
#2iron condor
Sell $20/$17.50P x $25/$27.50C, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between major OI strikes ($17.50P and $25C). High IV across both sides provides a wide, high-probability range. Positive GEX supports the thesis.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage/roll the tested side if spot moves within $0.50 of a short strike. Exit entire position before earnings.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $17.50 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. Targets the strongest OI support level. Extremely high IV yields a large credit, lowering the effective cost basis significantly. High probability of expiring worthless if pinning holds.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested. Be prepared to be assigned below $17.50. Close before earnings.
#4call credit spread
Sell $25.00 / Buy $27.50 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Shorter DTE play targeting the $25.00 call OI wall. Spot is well below this level, and positive GEX resists upward moves. Good for a quick theta decay play in a high-IV, pinning environment.
Mgmt: Close at 75% profit. Exit if spot closes above $24.50.
!Earnings on 2026-05-07 (38 days out). Close all short premium positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Gamma flip estimated at $18. A break below could lead to accelerated selling due to negative gamma from the $17.50 put OI.
!Low liquidity relative to mega-caps. Wider bid/ask spreads may impact fills; use limit orders.
!Extreme IV (84%) can lead to violent moves. Size positions smaller than usual.
!Unusual put buying in April $35-$42.50 strikes suggests some institutional hedging or bearish bets, though spot is far from these levels.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$13.4M), indicating more money spent on buying options than selling. This is a contrarian signal for premium sellers but warrants caution.