Home Options TTDReports

TTD

The Trade Desk, Inc.Close $21.02EOD only

Max Pain

$21.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.88

4.2% from close

Price Gap

+0.48

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.49

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TTD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

TTD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bullish pinning bias toward $23.00 (max pain). Confidence: 5.5/10. The market is pinned near-term by positive GEX, but longer-term flow and the MP trend are bearish, creating a conflicted, range-bound environment.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5; +1 for strong GEX pinning near spot; -1 for net premium bearish and mixed flow; -0.5 for extreme IV and far-dated MP trend lower.

Supports: GEX +$4.7M (pinning), spot 1.3% below near-term max pain ($23), DEX +22.6M shares (dealer long).
Conflicts: Net premium -$13.4M (bearish), MP trend slopes down to $20 by 2027, extreme IV (84.2%) indicates high stress.

📌Strong pin at $23 across next 3 expirations.

⚠️Extreme IV (84%) and bearish net premium conflict with pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 84.2% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers but with elevated tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.7M concentrated near spot — strong pinning force through early April expiries.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium bearish (-$13.4M) but P/C ratios neutral (vol 0.99, OI 0.52).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $22.69 is below near-term max pain ($23) — creates a slight upward gravitational pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning regime (GEX positive) and max pain at $23 persist across the next three weekly expirations (3/27, 4/2, 4/10). The MP trend lower and high IV suggest a longer-term bearish drift will reassert after the pin resolves.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$21.92$23.47

Pinning dominates; break below $21.92 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$20.87$24.51

Pin holds; edges defined by weekly EM.

Next 2 weeks

$20.27$25.11

Pin releases; MP trend lower and bearish net premium weigh.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $23 (2026-03-27); $23 (2026-04-02); $23 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $21.92/$23.47; 1w $20.87/$24.51

Support: $17.50 · $20.00

Resistance: $60.00 · $30.00 · $55.00

Gamma flip: ~$17.50 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,219

Structural: **Call OI walls at $25, $30, $55, $60, $200** are far OTM and non-restrictive. **Put floor at $17.50/$20.00** is the critical support zone, with massive OI (14.2K, 9.1K).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.7M

DEX: +22.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$18 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,219)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near spot. Gamma flip far below at ~$18; dealers are long gamma and will hedge by buying on dips and selling on rallies, reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 84.2% — extreme, indicating high single-stock stress. Premium selling has high nominal edge but requires defined risk.

Term structure: Humped — peaks at 81.0% for 5/8 expiry (near earnings 5/7), then declines. 2-week IV (60.4%) is ~24 vol points cheaper than 5-week.

Skew: **Calendar spread opportunity:** Sell high IV (81%) May expiry, buy lower IV (60-62%) April expiry for a bearish diagonal or reverse calendar.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$13.4M bearish; P/C vol 0.99 (balanced), P/C OI 0.52 (call-heavy structurally).

Directional prints: **$23.50C 4/10 vol 449 vs OI 132 (3.4x)** — could be opening bullish bets or closing short calls. **$20.50P 4/2 vol 492 vs OI 184 (2.7x)** — likely protective put buying or opening bearish spreads. Given net premium bearish, put buying is more consistent.

Unusual: Massive bearish premium flow in **April $35-$42.50 puts** (IV 90-170%). Likely far OTM put selling for premium or complex hedging, not directional.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$18** — a break below triggers accelerated dealer selling.

!**Earnings volatility** on ~5/7 priced into May IV spike (81%).

!**Extreme IV crush risk** for long premium positions after earnings or stabilization.

!**Structural put floor break** below $17.50 could lead to a vacuum down.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	High IV and bearish MP trend offer poor risk/reward for outright long.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Better as a hedge; outright short challenged by near-term pin.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $24C or $25C 4/17 (above weekly EM).	Stock pinned below strike; upside capped.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $20P 4/17 or $20/$17.5 put spread 4/17.	Break below put floor; defined risk via spread is preferred.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — IV extreme, pinning limits upside.	IV crush and theta decay.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Consider $22.5/$20 bear put spread 4/17 for post-pin bearish play.	Pinning eats premium; better as a hedge.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	GEX positive but VIX context N/A; IV >80% adds tail risk. $21/$20P x $24/$25C 4/10.	High IV implies wide expected moves; pin break risks one wing.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse calendar: Sell $23P 5/8 (IV 81%), Buy $23P 4/17 (IV 62%) for bearish bias.	Requires pin break lower; earnings date mismatch.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $20C Jan 2027, sell $25C against it monthly (e.g., 4/17).	High LEAPS IV; poor if stock drifts lower.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $20/$17.50 put spread, exp 4/17.

Collects high premium due to extreme IV while defining risk below the key $17.50 OI wall. Aligns with pinning (dealers hedge positively) and targets the strong put floor for support.

Credit: $0.80-$1.00

Max loss: $1.70

BE: $19.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $19.50 (breaching put floor).

Premium sellers seeking defined risk, bullish-to-neutral bias.

Reverse Calendar (Bearish)

Sell $23 Put 5/8, Buy $23 Put 4/17.

Capitalizes on the 19 vol-point differential between expirations (81% vs 62%). Profits if stock is near $23 at April expiry but decays rapidly in the short leg, or if it drifts lower post-pin. The extra DTE on the short leg provides a buffer if the pin holds longer.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: Varies (width of strikes if diagonal, but here same strike).

BE: Best near $23 at April expiry; manage before May earnings.

Mgmt: Close when short leg IV collapses post-April expiry or if spot moves decisively away from $23. Avoid holding into May earnings week.

Traders expecting a bearish resolution after the multi-week pin, comfortable with moderate complexity.

Covered Call Overlay

If long stock, sell $24.50 Call 4/10.

Generates income against existing shares in a pinning regime where upside is capped. Strike is above the 1-week EM high ($24.51) and near resistance, providing a high probability of keeping shares.

Credit: $0.35-$0.50

Max loss: Unlimited above strike (but shares called away).

BE: Stock price + premium received.

Mgmt: Buy to close at 50% profit or if pin breaks above $24. Roll up/out if challenged.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield in a range-bound market.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot bounces from $22 and holds above $22.50 → Enter $20/$17.50 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot breaks and closes below $21.92 (2d EM low) → Enter $22.5/$20 bear put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $19.50 (breaching put floor) → Exit all short put positions.

EXITIV on 5/8 expiry drops below 70% (post-earnings crush) → Take profits on any short May premium positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week pin at $23 within a longer-term bearish drift. Invalidation: Close below $19.50. The regime favors selling high IV premium with defined risk (put spreads) and exploiting the term structure (reverse calendars). Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk income, 2) Reverse calendar for post-pin bearish view, 3) Covered call for shareholders.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.