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SOXL

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3XClose $178.39EOD only

Max Pain

$149.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.18

6.3% from close

Price Gap

-29.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.44

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

—

No reports available

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SOXL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

SOXL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish near-term on dealer gamma support at $135 and pinning at $140-$150. Spot above max pain suggests drift up, but overbought and high vol cap upside to $210-$217.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive (pinning), -1 spot 27% from MP, +1 VIX 17

Supports: Max pain pins $140-$150, GEX +$19.2M, DEX +34.5M shares, spot above MP
Conflicts: Spot 27% above MP, high vol, resistance $200-$210

🟢Gamma pinning at $135; dealer long gamma supports spot

🔴High IV; premium decay risk for long options

🟡Spot extended 27% above MP; mean reversion risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high relative to typical; VIX 16.7 but SOXL IV elevated due to sector vol and leverage.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning positive at $135; GEX +$19.2M. Flip proximity low (~$135).

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; put OI concentrated at $135 (29.2% below spot) indicates hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~27% above $150 max pain; upward bias but extended mean reversion risk.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Dealer gamma support and max pain pins provide structural stability, but high vol limits conviction beyond 2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$163.61$217.51

Support at $135 and pinning towards $150-$163

Next 2 weeks

$170.16$210.96

Resistance $200-$210; mean reversion risk from extended spot

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $150 (2026-05-22); $140 (2026-05-29); $140 (2026-06-05)

EM guardrails: 1w $163.61/$217.51

Support: $170.16

Resistance: $200.00 · $210.96

Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,329 (29.2% below spot)

Structural: Max pain: $150 (5/22), $140 (5/29), $140 (6/5). EM guardrails: 1w $163.61/$217.51. Support: $170.16, $135 gamma flip. Resistance: $200, $210.96.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+19.2M

DEX: +34.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$135 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,329 (29.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$19.2M, DEX +34.5M shares. Gamma flip near $135 (put OI concentration). Net long gamma supports spot; pinning risk near call resistance.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SOXL IV rich vs VIX; leverage amplifies vol. Premiums elevated; caution for option buyers.

Term structure: Term structure likely contango; futures decay impacts long positions. Event timing not given.

Skew: Put skew elevated from downside hedging. Opportunity: sell puts at $135 support for premium decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $162.8M net premium (more put than call buying), with put/call ratios vol 1.79, OI 1.52 confirming bearish flow.

Directional prints: 50 put 180 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 4658 vs OI 277 (vol/OI 16.8); heavy put buying at deep OTM strike reflecting strong bearish sentiment. 59.9 put 190 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 4661 vs OI 475 (9.8); sizable put buying at ITM strike for directional or defensive positioning. 24.4 call 194 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 1383 vs OI 129 (10.7); speculative call buying but dwarfed by put flow.

Unusual: 50 put 180 OTM 2026-05-22 — Extreme vol/OI 16.8; low IV suggests concentrated fresh bearish bets. 101.8 put 182 OTM 2026-05-22 — High IV (101.8%) with vol/OI 15.7; unusual panic buying or hedging at elevated volatility. 127 put 170 OTM 2026-05-29 — Weekly expiration, vol/OI 13.4, very high IV 127%; speculative or protective put rolling.

Risks & Catalysts

!Mean reversion to max pain $140-$150

!High IV decay on long options

!Semiconductor sector volatility

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $185.00/$195.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma support and pinning at $140-$150 suggest upward bias; defined risk limits high IV exposure.	Capped upside at short strike; max loss is premium paid if spot falls below long strike.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-05 $195.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $185.00 call Why now: High near-term IV makes selling rich; back-month cheaper vol offers long exposure to drift.	If spot falls, long call loses value faster; max loss if both legs expire worthless.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $185.00/$195.00 call spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $185/$195 call spread.

Why this play: Captures upward drift with defined risk, avoiding high IV decay on long options.

Debit: $3.35-$4.10

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $189.10

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below 170.16 invalidation level.

Traders seeking capped risk with moderate upside.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-06-05 $195.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $185.00 call

Sell 2026-06-05 $195 call, buy 2026-07-17 $185 call.

Why this play: Exploits high near-term IV by selling front call, while maintaining long exposure with back-month.

Debit: $21.26-$25.99

Max loss: $25.99

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor front call gamma; roll if spot moves significantly.

Advanced traders comfortable with variable gains and higher max loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSOXL holds above $135 and 185/195 call spread ask <= $4.10 → Buy 1x 2026-06-18 $185/$195 call spread for max risk $410

IFSOXL above $140 and diagonal net debit <= $25.99 → Sell 1x 2026-06-05 $195 call, buy 1x 2026-07-17 $185 call for net debit $25.99

Exit Triggers

EXITSOXL breaks below $130 → Close all positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish near-term bias on dealer gamma support at $135 and pinning at $140-$150. Enter bull call spread if spot holds above $135 support with risk limited to $410. Enter call diagonal if spot stabilizes above $140 to exploit high IV. Exit both on invalidation below $130.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.