base 5; +2 high IV; +1 defined-risk spreads; -1 trending GEX; -1.5 moderate liquidity
Term structure: Humped at 79 DTE (60.5%), elevated across all expirations
Spot vs MP: Below max pain ($165) by 8.6%
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$9.2M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Below $135, dealer hedging amplifies downside moves
OI concentrations: Major put walls at $135 (8,822 OI) and $140 (7,634 OI); call wall at $200 (4,274 OI)
#1put spread
Sell $135/$130 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV provides rich credit. Short strike aligns with major OI support at $135, below the estimated gamma flip. 45 DTE optimizes theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit entire position if SNOW closes below $135 (gamma flip). Roll only if credit >50% of original.
#2call credit spread
Sell $180/$185 call spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Spot is 19% below short strike. Max pain for May expirations is $160-$180, providing a buffer. High IV inflates call premiums. OI call wall at $200 offers distant resistance.
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Manage if spot breaches $172.50 (halfway to short strike).
#3iron condor
Sell $140/$135P x $180/$185C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Combines high-IV put and call spreads for a net credit. Provides a 30-point-wide range ($135-$180) where the position profits, well outside the 17-day expected move of ±$14.58.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Leg out of threatened side if spot moves within $5 of a short strike. Be mindful of liquidity when closing multi-leg.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $140 put 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For those willing to own shares. High IV yields ~5.5% return on capital in 45 days. Strike is at major OI support. Assignment price ($140) is 7% below current spot.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, but only before falling below $135. Close at 80% profit.
!Trending GEX (-$9.2M): Dealers hedge to amplify price moves, increasing risk of sharp trends away from your strikes.
!Earnings expected ~2026-05-27: Close or roll all short premium positions at least one week prior to avoid earnings volatility crush.
!Major put OI at $135: This level is critical support; a break could trigger accelerated selling toward the gamma flip.
!High Net Premium Paid (-$32.6M): Institutional money is paying for puts (bearish flow), a contrary indicator but adds directional pressure.
!Moderate Liquidity: Expect wider bid-ask spreads, especially on multi-leg orders. Use limit orders.