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SNOW

Snowflake Inc.Close $166.97EOD only

Max Pain

$155.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.90

4.7% from close

Price Gap

-11.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SNOW options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SNOW Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull lower. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is 8.6% below the nearest max pain ($165), and negative GEX (-$9.2M) suggests a trending environment with dealer hedging amplifying moves. The net premium outflow of -$32.6M confirms institutional selling pressure.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bearish; -1 spot far from MP reduces pinning force.

Supports: GEX -$9.2M (trending), Net Premium -$32.6M (bearish), P/C Vol 0.57 (call selling/put buying).
Conflicts: P/C OI 0.92 shows balanced positioning, but recent flow is decisively negative.

📉Negative GEX and net premium signal trending bearish regime.

🎯Spot $150.82 vs MP $165 creates a strong downward magnet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 60.3% is extremely elevated — premium selling has high edge, but timing is critical in a trending market.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$9.2M — dealers are net short gamma, hedging will amplify spot moves, especially downward.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed but net bearish — P/C vol 0.57 shows call selling/put buying, and net premium -$32.6M confirms institutional selling.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot is 8.6% below nearest max pain ($165) — strong gravitational pull lower toward support levels.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and bearish flow are consistent across expirations. Max pain ladder trends upward over time ($165 → $180), suggesting a persistent bearish grind is needed to close the gap.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$145.55$156.09

Negative GEX amplifies moves; a break below $145.55 targets $140 support.

Next 1 week

$139.97$161.67

Downside favored; failure to reclaim $156.09 (2d EM high) keeps pressure on.

Next 2 weeks

$136.25$165.40

Flow and GEX support continued downside; a rally above $165.40 invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $165 (2026-03-27); $158 (2026-04-02); $158 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $145.55/$156.09; 1w $139.97/$161.67

Support: $135.00 · $140.00 · $150.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $220.00 · $250.00

Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,822

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $200-$250 cap any explosive rally. Put floors at $110-$140 provide distant but significant support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-9.2M

DEX: +12.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$135 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 8,822)

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma — a move below $150 accelerates dealer selling, a move above $155 accelerates buying. Key gamma flip at ~$135 is a major behavioral level.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 60.3% is extremely high — selling premium is attractive, but requires defined risk in a trending market.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping (52.7% 2d → 60.5% 79d). No major kinks, but elevated vol across the board.

Skew: Far OTM puts ($200, $230, $260) show massive negative net premium, indicating expensive tail protection. Selling these wings has edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$32.6M bearish; P/C vol 0.57, P/C OI 0.92.

Directional prints: $200P 4/17 vol 2,060 vs OI 436 (4.7x) at IV 95.8% — likely bought as expensive protection or sold for premium. The high IV and negative net premium at that strike favor a sell-side interpretation, consistent with the bearish flow regime.

Unusual: $260P 5/15 vol 750 vs OI 100 (7.5x) — large block in a far OTM strike, likely a hedge or premium sale.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$135 — a break could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!Extremely high IV (60%) creates risk of sharp vol crush on any stabilization.

!Upward-sloping max pain trend ($165 → $180) suggests eventual bullish gravity over very long horizons.

!Earnings on 5/27 (est.) will dominate volatility post-April expiry.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and bearish flow suggest continued downside pressure.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short at $150, stop above $155	Sharp reversal if spot reclaims 2d EM high; high borrow cost.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $155C or $160C 4/17	Stock continues down; premium is high but may not offset losses.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell $140P 4/17 or $135/$130 put spread	Trending bearish regime; spot may fall through your strike.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	Fading strong bearish flow and negative GEX; expensive IV.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $150/$140 put spread 4/17	High IV and potential pinning above $150; time decay.
Iron condor	Moderate	$140/$135P x $160/$165C 4/17	GEX negative and VIX contextually high (via IV >60%) — trending regime breaks range.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Put Calendar: Sell $140P 4/10 (IV 52.8%), Buy $140P 4/17 (IV 55.0%)	Directional move through strike; small vol differential.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $110P 1/15/27, Sell $150P 4/17	Capital intensive; upside limited.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $150/$140 put spread, exp 4/17

Directly expresses the bearish GEX/flow regime with defined risk. Targets move toward the 1-week EM low ($139.97) and key support ($140). Better than long puts alone due to lower cost in high IV environment.

Debit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $146.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 70-80% of max value ($6.30-$7.20). Exit if spot closes above $155.

Traders with a bearish directional view seeking defined risk.

Reverse Put Calendar

Sell $140 Put 4/10, Buy $140 Put 4/17

Capitalizes on the steep term structure (sell lower IV near-dated, buy higher IV farther out). Profits from spot staying near $140 through 4/10 expiry and/or from IV expansion in the long leg. The extra week in the long leg provides a buffer if the bearish move is delayed.

Credit: $0.40-$0.70

Max loss: Unlimited (short put risk)

BE: Complex; manage at 50% credit or if spot moves >$5 from $140.

Mgmt: Close for 50% of max credit. Roll short leg if challenged. Exit entire position if spot breaks below $135.

Volatility traders anticipating a slow grind to $140 with potential for increased uncertainty post-4/10.

Short Stock with Call Hedge

Short stock at ~$150, Buy $155 Call 4/17 for protection

Highest-conviction directional play aligned with negative GEX. The long call caps risk on a sharp reversal above the 2d EM high ($156.09). The 30+ DTE on the hedge allows the bearish thesis time to play out without weekly gamma noise.

Debit: $4.00-$6.00

Max loss: Unlimited above $155 + premium paid

BE: $144.00

Mgmt: Cover short on a close above $155. Take profits on short in chunks at $145, $140.

Active traders comfortable with undefined risk, seeking to capture the trending move amplified by dealer hedging.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $145.55 (2d EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter bear put spread: Buy $145/$135 put spread 4/17.

IFIV term structure flattens (4/10 IV > 4/17 IV) → Close reverse calendar; consider long put diagonal (sell near, buy far).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above the 1-week EM high ($161.67) → Exit all bearish positions (spreads, shorts).

EXITVIX (proxy via IV) drops below 50% while spot is below $150 → Take profits on short premium positions (e.g., calendar credit).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is bearish, driven by negative GEX and institutional selling. Invalidation is a close above $161.67. The regime favors directional bearish plays and selling expensive OTM put wings. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for defined-risk downside; 2) Reverse put calendar for vol structure play; 3) Short stock with call hedge for highest-conviction directional exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.