Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (31 DTE, IV 106%), elevated through May, then gradually declining.
Spot vs MP: Spot $635.34 is below nearest max pain ($647.50) by 1.9%
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$6.6M)
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Gamma flip estimated at ~$250. Above this, dealers suppress volatility; below, they amplify moves.
OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $250 (OI 13,729), significant call wall at $580 (OI 6,531). Current spot is far above both, reducing immediate magnetic pull.
#1put spread
Sell $500/$495 Put Spread, 2026-05-15 expiration (45 DTE)
Targets the high IV (~104%) in the 45 DTE window. Short strike ($500) is a major OI support level (OI 5,116 & 3,552) and is 21% below spot, providing a wide buffer. Strong pinning regime supports a move away from these deep OTM strikes.
Mgmt: Close at 65% of max profit. Roll only if spot approaches $515. Exit entire position if spot closes below $250 gamma flip.
#2put spread
Sell $575/$570 Put Spread, 2026-04-17 expiration (17 DTE)
Shorter DTE captures accelerated theta decay. Short strike ($575) is 9.5% below spot, outside the 2-day expected move. High IV (97.3%) and positive GEX support a pinning environment. Unusual volume in the $575 put for 4/10 suggests interest in this area.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. This is a weekly play; do not hold through earnings. Exit if spot breaches $600.
#3iron condor
Sell $500/$495P x $770/$775C Iron Condor, 2026-05-01 expiration (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on the peak IV (106%) at the 5/01 expiry. Uses established OI walls: $500 put support and $770 call resistance (OI 4,043). Provides a very wide profit range of $495-$770 ($275 wide) which is 43% of spot price, ideal for a high-volatility, pinning name.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit. Manage legs independently if one side is tested. Exit entire position 5 days before the 4/30 earnings date.
#4cash-secured put
Sell $530 Put, 2026-04-24 expiration (24 DTE)
For capital-rich sellers comfortable with assignment. Strike is 16.6% below spot, below major OI at $530 (3,717). IV is rich at 97%. High credit provides a 3.4% return on capital in 24 days, with a breakeven 19.4% below spot.
Mgmt: Roll down and out for a credit if spot approaches $560. Be prepared to take assignment if breached. Not recommended for those unwilling to own the stock.
!Earnings expected around 2026-04-30 & 2026-05-06. Close all short premium positions at least 5 days prior to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Extreme Implied Volatility (100%+). While great for premium, it signals the market expects massive future moves. Position size small.
!Gamma Flip at ~$250. A break below this level could lead to accelerated, dealer-amplified selling. This is the ultimate stop-loss level.
!Moderate Liquidity. Bid-ask spreads will be wide, especially on multi-leg orders. Use limit orders and be patient.
!Unusual put flow at $650-$700 for 4/02 expiration. This may indicate near-term selling pressure, but it's within the expected move.
!Massive, Far OTM Put OI at $250. This is a major risk factor if a catastrophic drop occurs, but it's currently 61% below spot.