SMCI Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 net premium bearish; +1 large put flow; -1 P/C ratio call-dominant

Watch next session: $20 PUT OI (31K) for defense; Spot vs $22.50 CALL OI wall (37K)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$18.7M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.73 — call-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 0.76 — moderate put lean in positioning

A significant bearish net premium flow (-$18.7M) conflicts with a call-dominant P/C volume ratio, creating a mixed signal. The dominant narrative is large, concentrated bearish bets in deep OTM puts, while near-term call flow attempts to pin price near max pain.

Notable Prints

SMCI 5/15/26 $70 Put

Vol: 3,550

OI: 800

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 185.5%

Notional: ~$18.2M (Premium Flow)

Intent: Large, fresh bearish positioning or tail-risk hedge.

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (yield generation, but unlikely given size/IV).

Read-through: This single print is the primary driver of the bearish net premium. It's a massive, low-delta bet for a catastrophic drop, indicating significant fear or portfolio protection.

SMCI 4/24/26 $25 Call

Vol: 4,155

OI: 1,159

Vol/OI: 3.6x

IV: 74.9%

Notional: ~$1.1M (Premium Flow)

Intent: Directional call buying targeting a move above the $24 OI wall.

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold as part of a spread (e.g., call credit).

Read-through: Bullish flow targeting a key resistance level ($24/$25). This works against the bearish put flow, suggesting a battle between near-term bullish pinning and longer-term bearish hedging.

SMCI 5/15/26 $19 Put

Vol: 679

OI: 443

Vol/OI: 1.5x

IV: 92.5%

Notional: ~$683K (Estimated from $20 Put Net Prem)

Intent: Nearer-to-spot protective put buying.

Dual read: Bought (bearish/downside protection).

Read-through: Adds to the bearish flow closer to the money, defending the $19-$20 zone. This is a more tactical bearish bet than the $70P.

SMCI 1/15/27 $1 Call

Vol: 402

OI: 169

Vol/OI: 2.4x

IV: 246.1%

Notional: ~$959K (Premium Flow)

Intent: Lottery ticket long-dated call buying or a spread leg.

Dual read: Bought (ultra-long-term bullish) or sold (unlikely given low premium).

Read-through: Noise in the context of today's flow. Extremely low delta, likely a negligible-cost speculative bet on a massive long-term rally.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $25 Calls (4/24) and general premium in $22-$25 zone.

Put additions: Massive $70 Puts (5/15) and defensive $19-$20 Puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$108.8M) suggests pinning support, but large put flow is bearish.

OI clusters: Major Put OI at $3 (54.5K), Call OI at $32 (54K) and $24 (50.8K). Creates a wide range but with a near-term magnet between $22 (MP) and $24 (call wall).

Hedging evidence: Clear. The $70 Put print is a textbook large-scale, low-delta hedge. The $19 Put flow is nearer-term protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($22.77) is just above nearest max pain ($22). Positive GEX and near-term call flow support a pin in the $22-$24 range.

Signal vs Noise

~The $1 Call (1/15/27) is a lottery ticket, not a meaningful directional signal for near-term price action.

~High volume in deep OTM puts (e.g., $9 Put) often has minimal delta impact and can be part of complex multi-leg strategies or volatility plays.

~Some of the call flow at $22-$25 may be selling (e.g., covered calls) against large underlying positions, not outright bullish bets.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is schizophrenic: massive bearish premium vs. call-dominant volume.

🛡️Institutions are buying large, far OTM puts ($70P) as tail-risk protection.

📌Near-term GEX is positive and spot is near max pain ($22), favoring a pinning range.

🎯Watch the battle between the $24 call wall (50.8K OI) and the $20 put support (31K OI).

Read the Flow analysis for SMCI for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.