SHOP Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1.5 large put premium dominance; -0.5 GEX positive/pinning; -0.5 P/C volume neutral

Watch next session: $100-$115 put OI growth; Spot vs. $119 max pain level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$8.4M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.02 — neutral volume, slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.68 — significant call OI dominance

Mixed signals with a bearish lean in premium flow. While open interest is heavily call-skewed, today's premium was dominated by large, far-dated put purchases, suggesting institutional hedging or downside positioning.

Notable Prints

SHOP 4/17 $160 Put

Vol: 705

OI: 147

Vol/OI: 4.8x

IV: 101.4%

Notional: ~$3.05M

Intent: Large directional put purchase or hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (bullish)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (101%) suggests this is a premium purchase, not a sale. A large, OTM put buy 17 days out is a clear bearish or protective bet.

SHOP 4/17 $155 Put

Vol: 680

OI: 144

Vol/OI: 4.7x

IV: 63.2%

Notional: ~$2.72M

Intent: Directional put purchase (part of a bearish structure)

Dual read: Likely a leg of a put spread with the $160P

Read-through: High volume and notional alongside the $160P suggests a multi-strike bearish put spread, targeting a move below $155 by mid-April.

SHOP 4/2 $117 Call

Vol: 941

OI: 158

Vol/OI: 6.0x

IV: 53.9%

Notional: ~$110k

Intent: Near-term directional or gamma play

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (neutral/range-bound)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI in a near-dated, near-the-money call. Given spot at $118.62 and max pain at $119, this is likely a short-dated bet on a move above $117, possibly a gamma scalp against the pin.

SHOP 4/2 $114 Put

Vol: 218

OI: 129

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 56.0%

Notional: ~$25k

Intent: Near-term downside hedge or bet

Dual read: Protection against a drop below the 2-day expected move low ($115.23)

Read-through: Modest size, but strategically placed just below the near-term expected move. Suggests some traders are positioning for a break below support.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal recent call premium. Large legacy OI at $170C and $145C.

Put additions: Significant premium into April $155-$185 puts, particularly $160P.

GEX/DEX consistency: No — Positive GEX suggests pinning, but bearish put flow contradicts. Flow may be anticipating a break of the pin.

OI clusters: Major call walls at $170 (56K OI) and $145 (55K OI). Major put walls at $100 (14.6K OI) and $95 (12.1K OI).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence in large, high-IV put purchases for April expirations. This is institutional-scale downside protection or directional betting.

Max pain context: Spot ($118.62) is pinned at near-term max pain ($119). The large put flow suggests institutions are hedging against a break lower from this equilibrium.

Signal vs Noise

~Massive OI at $170C and $145C is legacy positioning, not indicative of recent flow.

~The $117C 4/2 activity is likely short-dated gamma trading related to the max pain pin at $119, not a structural bullish bet.

~High volume in deep OTM puts (e.g., $160P) with huge notional is a clear signal, not noise.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Premium flow strongly bearish (-$8.4M net) driven by large OTM put purchases

📌Spot pinned at max pain ($119) with positive GEX, creating a tension with bearish flow

🛡️Institutions adding significant downside protection for April, targeting moves below $155

🧱Key levels: $119 (pin), $115 (near-term support/expected move low), $100 (major put OI wall)

Read the Flow analysis for SHOP for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.