Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 5/7 (implied by IV kink). IV is extremely elevated at 66%, making IV crush plays attractive. Historical data shows mixed EPS surprises but recent beats. Best strategy is selling premium via iron condor, with long straddle as a speculative alternative.
base 5; +1 elevated IV (66%); +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV term structure shows sharp kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1% before), confirming earnings expected ~5/7.
📅Earnings date implied as ~5/7 by IV kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1%)
⚠️Limited historical move data—rely more on IV setup than past patterns
💰IV extremely elevated at 66%—premium selling strategies favored
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$11.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-8.4M, P/C 1.02)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $119 (spot $118.62)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (37 days)implied (IV kink at 5/08 expiration)
Expected moves:
- 5/08 (38d): ±$21.52 (18.1%) [$97.10 - $140.15]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1% on 5/01, 59.0% on 4/24). Elevated IV across all expirations.
Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50-55% range
Skew: Mixed flow with large put premium at $160-$170 strikes, but OI shows heavy call concentration at $145/$170
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient move data provided
Directional bias: Mixed: 2 beats, 2 misses in last 4 quarters
Key Levels
1$100 gamma flip
2$119 max pain (spot)
3$140 call wall (OI)
4$95/$100 put OI walls
5EM: $97 - $140
Flow Highlights
Massive put premium at $160-$170 strikes (net $-2.4M to $-3.1M)
Institutional hedging or bearish bets far OTM
Large call premium at $140 ($2.86M net positive)
Bullish positioning near upper EM bound
Unusual $117C 4/02 volume (941 vs 158 OI, 6.0x)
Near-term bullish bet ahead of earnings
Strategies
Iron condor (IV crush play)
Sell $100/$95P x $140/$145C 5/08
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (late April)
Elevated IV (70.2%) provides rich premium. Strikes align with OI walls ($100P, $140C) and EM bounds. Historical mixed surprises support range-bound play.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $100-$140 range, IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds (>18.1% move)
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $120 straddle 5/08
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked further
Elevated IV but potential for oversized move given recent beat/miss volatility. Strike at current price maximizes gamma.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (18.1%) by >20%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $120, IV crushes significantly
Put credit spread (bullish bias)
Sell $95P / Buy $90P 5/08
Trigger: Enter on any dip to $115-117 before earnings
Heavy put OI at $95/$100 provides support. Lower breakeven ($93.50) below key gamma flip ($100). Captures IV crush with defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $95, earnings beat or guide well
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $95 on weak results
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 18.1% EM is large—position size accordingly
!IV crush magnitude uncertain given overall high vol regime (66%)
!Liquidity: Good OI (584K) but volume moderate (24K)—use limit orders
!Gamma flip at $100—break below could accelerate selling
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into late April—if it spikes above 75%, condor becomes more attractive
?Unusual put activity at $160-$170—could indicate tail risk hedging
?Spot vs $119 max pain—pinning potential into weekly expirations