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SHOP

Shopify Inc.Close $105.01EOD only
Max Pain
$102.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.08
3.9% from close
Price Gap
-3.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SHOP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
SHOP Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/7 (implied by IV kink). IV is extremely elevated at 66%, making IV crush plays attractive. Historical data shows mixed EPS surprises but recent beats. Best strategy is selling premium via iron condor, with long straddle as a speculative alternative.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 elevated IV (66%); +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV term structure shows sharp kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1% before), confirming earnings expected ~5/7.
📅Earnings date implied as ~5/7 by IV kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1%)
⚠️Limited historical move data—rely more on IV setup than past patterns
💰IV extremely elevated at 66%—premium selling strategies favored

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 66%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$11.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-8.4M, P/C 1.02)
Spot vs MP
At max pain $119 (spot $118.62)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (37 days)implied (IV kink at 5/08 expiration)

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$21.52 (18.1%) [$97.10 - $140.15]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/08 expiration (70.2% vs 61.1% on 5/01, 59.0% on 4/24). Elevated IV across all expirations.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50-55% range

Skew: Mixed flow with large put premium at $160-$170 strikes, but OI shows heavy call concentration at $145/$170

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient move data provided

Directional bias: Mixed: 2 beats, 2 misses in last 4 quarters

Key Levels

1$100 gamma flip
2$119 max pain (spot)
3$140 call wall (OI)
4$95/$100 put OI walls
5EM: $97 - $140

Flow Highlights

Massive put premium at $160-$170 strikes (net $-2.4M to $-3.1M)

Institutional hedging or bearish bets far OTM

Large call premium at $140 ($2.86M net positive)

Bullish positioning near upper EM bound

Unusual $117C 4/02 volume (941 vs 158 OI, 6.0x)

Near-term bullish bet ahead of earnings

Strategies

Iron condor (IV crush play)
Sell $100/$95P x $140/$145C 5/08
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $97.50 - $142.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (late April)
Elevated IV (70.2%) provides rich premium. Strikes align with OI walls ($100P, $140C) and EM bounds. Historical mixed surprises support range-bound play.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $100-$140 range, IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds (>18.1% move)
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $120 straddle 5/08
Max loss: $21.52
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $98.48 - $141.52
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked further
Elevated IV but potential for oversized move given recent beat/miss volatility. Strike at current price maximizes gamma.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (18.1%) by >20%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $120, IV crushes significantly
Put credit spread (bullish bias)
Sell $95P / Buy $90P 5/08
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.50
BE: $93.50
Trigger: Enter on any dip to $115-117 before earnings
Heavy put OI at $95/$100 provides support. Lower breakeven ($93.50) below key gamma flip ($100). Captures IV crush with defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $95, earnings beat or guide well
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $95 on weak results

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 18.1% EM is large—position size accordingly
!IV crush magnitude uncertain given overall high vol regime (66%)
!Liquidity: Good OI (584K) but volume moderate (24K)—use limit orders
!Gamma flip at $100—break below could accelerate selling

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into late April—if it spikes above 75%, condor becomes more attractive
?Unusual put activity at $160-$170—could indicate tail risk hedging
?Spot vs $119 max pain—pinning potential into weekly expirations
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.