Term structure: Humped at May 1st expiration (79.4%), elevated through mid-year.
Spot vs MP: At max pain $57 (spot $56.56).
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$5.2M).
Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Estimated at ~$35 based on massive $35 Put OI wall (11,587). Below this, negative gamma could accelerate moves down.
OI concentrations: Major Put walls at $35 (11,587 OI) and $48 (6,923 OI). Major Call wall at $70 (17,199 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $48/$45 Put Spread exp 5/15 (45 DTE)
Sells into the massive $48 put OI wall (6,923) for support. High IV (77.5%) provides excellent credit. Position is well above the critical $35 gamma flip. 45 DTE is optimal theta decay zone.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$0.65 credit). Exit if RBLX closes below $47. Roll only if credit >$1.00 for same DTE. Close before earnings on 4/30.
#2iron condor
Sell $48/$45P x $70/$73C Iron Condor exp 5/15 (45 DTE)
Capitalizes on the strong pinning between the $48 put wall and $70 call wall. Positive GEX supports range-bound price action. High IV across the curve provides a wide, high-probability range.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit (~$0.85 credit). Manage legs independently: roll tested side for a credit if possible. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike ($48 or $70). Close before earnings.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $45 Put exp 5/15 (45 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers comfortable with assignment. Strikes below the $48 OI wall for an extra buffer. Extremely high premium (8.4% of strike) compensates for risk. Well above the $35 gamma flip.
Mgmt: Roll down and out for a credit if tested, targeting >30 DTE. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to take assignment below $41.20, which is a >27% drop from current price.
#4call credit spread
Sell $70/$73 Call Spread exp 4/17 (17 DTE)
Defined-risk bet against the massive $70 call wall (17,199 OI). Shorter DTE capitalizes on faster theta decay in a high-IV, pinning regime. Serves as a hedge or standalone play if bullish on pinning but want call-side exposure.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit due to shorter duration. Exit if RBLX closes above $69. Do not hold through earnings.
!Earnings on 4/30 — Close all short premium positions before this announcement. IV will crush.
!Low liquidity — Bid/ask spreads are wide. Use limit orders and assume mid-point for credit estimates.
!Gamma flip ~$35 — A break below this level could trigger accelerated selling. This is the ultimate stop-loss level for put sellers.
!Bearish Flow — Net premium flow is negative ($-17.8M), suggesting institutional put buying. Be wary of tail risk.
!Ex-dividend — None imminent, but monitor for announcements to avoid early assignment on short calls.