base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 15
Term structure: Upward sloping from 1d (38%) to 1w (48%), then flattens near 50%+; short-term IV suppressed relative to longer tenors
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+51.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,507 (15.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put floor $120-$130 (26.5K OI), call wall $150-$200; max pain pins at $142 (6/5), $145 (6/12), $130 (6/18)
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $132.00/$126.00 put spread
Sell $132/$126 put spread, collect premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if spot breaks $130.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $134.00/$126.00 put wing and $152.50/$165.00 call wing
Sell $134/$126 put and $152.50/$165 call wings.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if pin risk shifts.
#3Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $152.50/$165.00 call spread
Sell $152.50/$165 call spread, limited risk.
Mgmt: Close if spot nears $152 quickly.
!Near-term IV low (38%) may underestimate short moves
!Call OI wall $150-$200 could cap upside; put floor $120-$130 supports downside
!Gamma flip at $120 if spot drops - rapid dealer hedging shift