Earnings Verdict
Bullish-leaning — pinning regime with concentrated put OI ~18% below spot and strong call walls above; flow and GEX supportive. Note: historical beat rate shown but based on a very small sample.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: GEX and flow strongly aligned; historical beat consistency but sample tiny
Most important: Pinning gamma: concentrated put OI ~18% below spot supporting downside pin; separate gamma flip sits above spot (~120% of current price) and could accelerate moves if breached
📌Pin at ~18% below spot: heavy put OI concentrated $143–$148
📈Flow + GEX aligned bullishly; net premium inflow ~2.2M
⚠️Front-week IV elevated (~44%) — expect material post-earnings crush
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,180 (18.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (17 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$7.60 (5.2%)
- 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$10.98 (7.5%)
- 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$18.33 (12.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front-week IV elevated (~44% for nearest expiries) with steep term slope to weeklies.
Crush estimate: Moderate-to-high IV crush expected across weeklies (~30–50% front-week drop possible).
Skew: Put-heavy OI at $143–$148 reduces effective downside skew while large call OI wall sits at $155–$160
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Historical moves modest vs model; expected move range 5–12% across horizons.
Directional bias: Historical beat record 4/4 noted but sample tiny—treat as low-confidence bias
Key Levels
1$120.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $138.79/$153.99
3Max pain pins: $136 (2026-04-17); $139 (2026-04-24); $140 (2026-05-01)
Flow Highlights
Heavy unusual put prints at $143–$148 for 4/24 and concentrated short-dated put volume.
Creates pinning pressure ~18% below spot (max-pain region) distinct from upside gamma flip
Large call OI wall $155–$160 with net premium inflow ~2.2M.
Upside resistance that also indicates bullish directional flow and potential call anchoring
Strategies
Front-week call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-08 $160.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $165.00 call
Trigger: Close front leg into earnings-driven IV drop; roll long call if breakout accelerates.
Collect rich front-week IV, retain upside exposure while limiting tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell May‑08 $160 call, buy May‑29 $165 to harvest near-term decay and keep upside optionality if IV flip/breakout occurs.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
May iron condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $132.00/$131.00 put wing and $170.00/$200.00 call wing
Trigger: Close into rapid IV crush or if price approaches wings; adjust if pin fails. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Volume below 5.
Defined-risk premium sale to monetize expected IV compression with limited downside.
Outperforms: Sell May‑29 132/131 put wing and 170/200 call wing to collect premium across term structure.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $132.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Near-term IV is rich and likely to compress after earnings; a neutral premium sale captures decay while maintaining short exposure.
Outperforms: Sell a short strangle to capture elevated IV around earnings with expirations beyond the expected print.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Significant front-week IV; sharp post-earnings move can outsize expectations
!Pinning can fail if results or guidance disappoint despite put concentration
!Upside gamma flip above spot (~120%) can quickly accelerate moves if breached
What to Watch
?Price action around put-concentrated $143–$148 (≈18% below spot) and $155–$160 call wall
?IV changes in nearest expiries pre-close
?Unusual print follow-through and time-of-day flow into expiry