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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $152.17EOD only
Max Pain
$140.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.75
4.4% from close
Price Gap
-12.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
87
High premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
9.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Confidence 7.5/10. Best strategy: defined-risk premium sale around the established pinning regime (e.g., put-credit or iron/strangle sized to EM). Key risk: a guidance-driven gap beyond the 1‑week EM bounds ($133.12-$151.17) that overwhelms dealer pinning.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Dealer GEX is strongly positive (+$105.1M) and net premium/flow is bullish — this amplifies pinning toward nearby call-heavy strikes ($140-$150) unless a guidance shock breaks the range.
📅Next scheduled earnings on 2026-05-04 (19d) — use 16d (2026-05-01) and 23d (2026-05-08) expirations to bracket event exposure.
📈Dealer GEX +$105.1M with concentrated GEX at $140/$142 supports pinning near current spot ($142.15).
⚖️Historical beat rate 100% (4/4) + net bullish premium (+$31.8M) bias toward upside drift; still size for gap risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,764 (8.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (19 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$4.67 (3.3%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$9.02 (6.3%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$11.98 (8.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week ATM IV is elevated but lower than the May expirations: 2d ATM 46.0% → 9-16d ~49% → 23d ATM 64.9%. There is a short-term kink (higher mid-month IV) consistent with upcoming 2026-05-04 earnings.

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-high crush for the May-week expiration (16d) — expect IV to drop from ~49% post-release; the 23d tenor shows higher convexity and will compress but retain more term premium. Rough practical crush: front-week and front-month expiries could fall 15–30% of their pre-event level.

Skew: Downside put skew is present but not extreme (put/call OI ratio 0.98). Large put OI cluster at $130 and call OI walls at $150-$155 create asymmetric dealer hedging: upside call walls increase pinch resistance above $150 while concentrated puts support the $130 area.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: PLTR has historically delivered smaller headline shocks relative to implied moves; next 16d EM ±$11.97 (8.4%) is wide but historical surprises have been modest.

Directional bias: Strong historical upside bias — 4/4 quarters beat (100% beat rate) and deterministic net premium/flow is bullish (+$31.8M). That supports a slight upside skew to post-earnings returns absent guidance shock.

Key Levels

1$130.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $137.48/$146.82; 1w $133.12/$151.17
3Max pain pins: $135 (2026-04-17); $136 (2026-04-24); $137 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large concentrated call premium at the $140 strike across near-term expirations (OI 38,930; Net premium flow +$32.8M at $140).

Significant short-dated long-call exposure near-spot increases dealer delta-hedge buying into small upside moves and strengthens pinning around $140.

Put OI cluster at $130 (26,764 OI) with GEX concentration +$25.2M at $140 and +$7.9M at $142.

Dealer positive GEX and put concentration below spot create a support band (~$130-$137) that will slow downside acceleration until delta rebalances shift materially.

Net premium flow strongly bullish (+$31.8M) with P/C volume 0.49.

Order flow is skewed to upside calls — structures that profit from range compression or mild upside continuation have a flow tailwind.

Strategies

Defined-risk put-credit near EM floor
Sell 2026-04-24 $135.00/$129.00 put spread
Credit: $0.91-$1.12
Max loss: $4.88
Max gain: $1.12
BE: $133.88
Trigger: Close into post-earnings IV crush or roll wider if stock gaps toward short strike; cut if price breaches EM guardrail $133.12 (1wk lower).
Best risk-adjusted harvest of elevated premium given strong dealer pinning and large put OI around $130-$137; defined loss if support fails.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term short_put around a 0.25 delta with a protective long_put ~5 points below (same expiration window 9–37d). Targets capture premium while aligning with deterministic support at $135 and put floor $100–$130.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Long-dated call diagonal funded by short front calls
Sell 2026-04-24 $149.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $170.00 call
Debit: $2.33-$2.85
Max loss: $2.85
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy to close or roll short leg immediately on large upside gaps above $150 call wall; prune longs if implied volatility collapses and stock stays within EM.
Takes advantage of term-structure kink (front IV ~49% vs 64.9% at 23d and elevated back months) while aligning bullish flow and beat history.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated calls (target ~0.30 delta) into the call-heavy front (9–16d) and buy longer-dated calls (37–93d) to keep upside optionality with carry built from premium decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Event volatility long straddle (selective sizing)
Buy 2026-05-01 $143.00 put + buy $143.00 call
Debit: $10.78-$13.17
Max loss: $13.17
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 129.83 / 156.17
Trigger: Take partial profits on one side if directional move develops; otherwise trim into IV collapse post-release. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
If you expect a material guidance beat/miss outside historical quiet surprises, a straddle captures directional runs when dealer pinning is overwhelmed.
Outperforms: Buy ATM call and put 9–16d (prefer 16d) to capture a move > the 16d EM ±$11.97. High cost but direct exposure to outsized surprises.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Primary — guidance or revenue miss can gap price outside the 1-week EM rails ($133.12-$151.17) breaking dealer pinning.
!IV crush: Front-cycle IV (9–16d) will compress materially after the 2026-05-04 print; long-vol buyers suffer large theta/IV decay if result is in-line.
!Liquidity: Contract universe is liquid around $140-$150 strikes (heavy OI and flow), but wider strikes and off-week expirations thin out — prefer near-spot, high-OI strikes for execution.
!Sizing: Keep short premium positions sized conservatively given undefined tail risk (short strangle) and use defined-risk spreads when possible.

What to Watch

?Change in front two expirations' ATM IV (2d→16d) — a rising front IV into earnings signals buying pressure and reduces short-premium edge.
?Flow into $140-$150 calls pre-event — continued call purchases increase dealer delta-hedging that can lift the stock into call walls.
?Price reaction relative to EM rails: cross below $133.12 (1w lower) or above $151.17 (1w upper) invalidates most defined-range bets.
?Unusual put prints at $130–$135 or large block buys/sells in $150–$155 call wall that would change hedge dynamics.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.