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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $156.54EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.38
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-20.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
9.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-05-04 (20 days). Regime: High vol with dealer pinning (GEX +$61.6M) and spot sitting At max pain $135. Best strategy depends on horizon: short premium into the pin (short straddle/iron condor) for Apr expirations if comfortable with gamma risk, or a directional/debit straddle into the May 1-4 window to capture a post-release move. Key risk is a gap outside EM bounds on release (guidance-driven) which can blow up short premium quickly.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 pinning/GEX; +1 spot at MP; -1 mixed flow; +0.5 VIX 18.4
Most important: Watch IV term structure into May expirations and the $140/$137 GEX concentration — heavy call OI there can pin/slow upside or create squeeze if breached.
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-05-04 (TBD) — options positioning currently front-runs event with concentrated activity around Apr/May expirations.
📌Max pain is flat at $135 across nearby expirations; spot $135.70 is effectively sitting on the pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$130.00 — Gamma flip ~130 (put OI concentration 27,017 ~4.2% below spot). Below ~130 dealers reduce hedges and moves amplify.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (20 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (3d): 7$5.38 (4.0%) [$130.32 - $141.07]
  • 2026-04-24 (10d): 7$9.15 (6.7%) [$126.55 - $144.85]
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): 7$11.72 (8.6%) [$123.97 - $147.42]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV sits ~47.6% at 2026-04-17, rising slightly to ~49.4% at 2026-04-24 and ~49.7% at 2026-05-01; long-dated expiries step up further. Avg IV is 62.8% across the chain, reflecting high realized/anticipated vol.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-event (near-term IV in the high-40s likely to compress back toward the low-mid 40s after release absent follow-on shocks).

Skew: Skew is fairly balanced but puts show slightly richer concentrations at 130/120 (put OI clusters) while call premium concentrates around 140-150; unusual flow shows heavy call buying at $140 and $150.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters: 2025-03/06/09/12 showed EPS >= estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided; recent surprises are small-to-modest (EPS beats of +0.01 to +0.25) suggesting historically contained post-earnings moves rather than explosive gaps.

Directional bias: Leans slightly bullish (consistent beats), but no guaranteed outsized gap-up pattern.

Key Levels

1$130.00
2$132.00
3$135.00
4$137.00
5$140.00
6$141.07

Flow Highlights

Large premium flow into $140 calls (Net ~$11,886,175 premium) and concentrated call OI at $140 (OI=38,661).

Market positioning shows significant upside call exposure around $140 — creates a pin/ceiling below the strike but also fuel for a squeeze if price runs through and dealers must hedge.

Heavy net premium at $135/$137 strikes (net call premium entries ~ $6.8M and $6.45M).

Short-term flow is skewed toward calls near spot, reinforcing pinning pressure around $135-$138 and making selling premium around those strikes more attractive.

Strategies

Short Apr 17 straddle (pin sell)
Sell 2026-04-17 135 straddle (short 135C/135P).
Credit: $4.80-$5.40
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.40
BE: ≈ $130.30 / $140.70 (midpoint credit applied)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before Apr17 if IV remains elevated and flow shows continued pin pressure at 135-140.
GEX positive (+$61.6M) and max pain $135 + concentrated OI/GEX at 135-140 make short straddle attractive for short-dated premium capture; payout maximized if stock remains pinned.
Outperforms: Stock pins between $130-$141 (within the 3d EM) and IV compresses after the short-dated window.
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap outside ±EM or large intraday move > ~5% causing margin/assignment pain.
Long May 01 straddle (earnings directional/diffusion play)
Buy 2026-05-01 136 straddle (136C + 136P). Referenced market prices: 136C last $5.85, 136P last $5.97 (unusual activity).
Debit: $11.60-$12.10
Max loss: $12.10
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈ $123.90 / $148.10 (136 0 ± premium)
Trigger: Enter ~1-3 days before earnings if IV hasn't ripped dramatically higher; favorable if you expect a move > EM (~8.6% for May01).
Long straddle uses observed May01 pricing (unusual activity shows trades at both legs) and captures tail risk around the actual 2026-05-04 event window while accepting IV crush if move is large.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds EM (stock moves outside ~$124-$148 by May01).
Underperforms: Stock pins at $135 and IV crushes more than expected (move inside EM).
Directional call spread (bullish, limited risk)
Buy 2026-04-17 136/140 call vertical (long 136C, short 140C).
Debit: $1.50-$1.80
Max loss: $1.80
Max gain: $2.60
BE: ≈ $137.50 (long leg cost basis) ; max payoff at $140+
Trigger: Use if you expect an upside beat and prefer defined risk into the short-dated pin window.
Cheap defined-risk way to express bullish skew created by heavy call interest at 140 while limiting exposure to a fast downside gap; uses available strikes and reflects mid-prices on short-dated chain.
Outperforms: Stock rallies through $140 before Apr17 or during the next several sessions, capturing the concentrated call OI run-up.
Underperforms: Stock falls or remains pinned below $137 and IV compresses.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for Apr17 is ±$5.38 (4.0%); earnings/guidance on 2026-05-04 can exceed these rails causing outsized gap exposure for shorts.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV is elevated (~47-50% near-term). Post-event compression of ~10-15 vol pts can hurt long straddles if price stays near spot; conversely short premium benefits if no gap.
!Pinning & dealer gamma: GEX +$61.6M and max pain $135 imply dealer hedging could keep price near $135-$140; sudden breach can produce sharp, fast moves due to gamma flip near $130.
!Liquidity & execution: Chain is liquid (total OI 3.13M, vol 584k). Popular strikes (130,135,140,150) show deep OI—good for entries/exits but expect slippage at extremes.
!Sizing: Keep short premium positions small relative to account due to unlimited upside/downside gap risk; favor defined-risk spreads if position sizing constraint is binding.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the May expirations (watch for front-month IV spikes >55% which would widen short premium risk).
?Unusual activity at $136-$137 strikes for May expirations (existing large prints: May01 136C $5.85, 136P $5.97; Apr17 137C/137 put volume).
?Price action around $137 and $140 (large GEX +$18.7M at $140, +$12.5M at $137) — breaches here change dealer hedging dynamics.
?Any guided revision or commentary ahead of 2026-05-04 that could shift positioning (watch insider/analyst chatter and pre-announcements).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.