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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $156.54EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.38
6.0% from close
Price Gap
-20.54
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
9.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

PLTR is in a High vol, Pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$21.9M) and spot trading Below max pain ($135). Best strategy: premium-selling within the Expected Move (EM) or a defined-risk iron condor into the short-term expiries to collect elevated IV while benefiting from dealer pinning. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 2026-04-17 EM ±$6.27 (4.7%) and triggers a directional gap outside pinning forces.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 6.0 (base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX pinning; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19)
Most important: Watch the dealer pinning concentrations at $132.00-$137.00 and whether price stays inside the 2026-04-17 EM [$126.09 - $138.64].
📌Max Pain $135.00 repeats across expirations (2026-04-17, 2026-04-24, 2026-05-01) — strong structural pin.
⚠️Gamma flip near $120.00 — if price breaches this level, dealer behavior likely shifts from pinning to amplifying downside.
🧾Earnings date: 2026-05-04 (TBD) — but short-dated options show concentrated action into Apr17/Apr24; trade the observed term-structure and pinning.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (Avg IV 63.6%; near-term ATM 50.8% for 2026-04-17)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (Total GEX +$21.9M; near-term GEX concentrations at $132.00, $133.00, $135.00, $137.00)
Flow Regime
Mixed (Net Premium -$71.3M; P/C Volume 0.44; P/C OI 0.98)
Spot vs MP
Below (Spot $132.37 is below Max Pain $135.00)
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Gamma flip ~ $120 (put OI concentration 20,974; ~9.3% below spot) — below this, dealers likely amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (TBD) (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (4d): : : ±$6.27 (4.7%) [$126.09 - $138.64]
  • 2026-04-24 (11d): ±$9.75 (7.4%) [$122.62 - $142.12]
  • 2026-05-01 (18d): ±$12.30 (9.3%) [$120.07 - $144.67]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV is 50.8% for 2026-04-17, with the 11d and 18d expiries at 51.0% and 51.1% — a relatively flat short-term term structure until the May 08/15 expirations where ATM IV steps up to 63.3%/62.6%.

Crush estimate: Post-event IV likely to compress back toward the 11–18d ATM range (~51.0%–51.1%) from the pre-event 50.8% for the 4d expiry; larger reductions are possible into the May 08/15 expiries where term structure is richer (crush tail risk but immediate 4d crush estimate ~5–12 vol pts into nearby midterm levels).

Skew: Skew shows notable put concentration at $120.00 (OI 20,974) and put-floor at $100-$120; call-side structural OI wall at $140-$155, making calls heavy above $140 while puts concentrate near $120-$130.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (4/4 listed recent quarters showed EPS >= estimate; small sample but consistent beats in 2025)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided explicitly for move magnitudes; historical EPS surprises show beats (examples: 2025-12-31 +0.09; 2025-09-30 +0.25; 2025-06-30 +0.16).

Directional bias: Bias toward upside on earnings (recent EPS beats), but no guarantee revenue details could flip sentiment.

Key Levels

1$135.00 (Max Pain — pins across expirations: 2026-04-17 / 2026-04-24 / 2026-05-01)
2$132.00 (Near-term GEX concentration +$5.4M — pin magnet, -0.3% from spot)
3$137.00 (Largest near-term GEX +$8.0M — pin magnet, +3.5% from spot)
4$120.00 (Gamma flip / put floor area; put OI 20,974; put floor range $100-$120)

Flow Highlights

Large net premium flow into $130.00 and $135.00 calls (Top Premium Flow shows $130.00 Net $17,662,056; $135.00 Net $16,233,651).

Significant call-side buying/positioning suggests dealer exposure concentrated in the $130-$135 neighborhood — consistent with pinning forces and call OI walls that could cap upside toward $140-$155.

Unusual concentrated put activity at Apr17 $133/$134/$132 strikes (multiple high-vol trades: PLTR260417P00133000 vol 7,470; PLTR260417P00134000 vol 5,063; PLTR260417P00132000 vol 5,996).

Hedging or directional protection into the earnings window — these ITM/near-ATM put prints increase dealer short-delta risk right at spot and help explain elevated GEX pinning near $132-$135.

Strategies

Short iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)
Sell 2026-04-17 135/140 call spread and sell 2026-04-17 125/120 put spread (sell 135C buy 140C; sell 125P buy 120P).
Credit: $1.40-$2.20
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $2.20
BE: Upside BE: 137.20; Downside BE: 122.80
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before 2026-04-17 if IV remains elevated near the Apr17 ATM 50.8% and price inside $126.09-$138.64.
Collects premium in a high-IV, pinning regime. Wings are sized to reflect dealer pinning near $132-$137 and to stay inside the next-4d EM.
Outperforms: PLTR stays inside the 2026-04-17 EM [$126.09 - $138.64] and dealers pin near $132-$137; time decay and positive GEX work in favor.
Underperforms: A gap > EM (outside ±$6.27) on earnings or guidance causes an immediate wing breach.
Long straddle (directional/volatility call)
Buy 2026-04-17 132.00 straddle (buy 132C + 132P).
Debit: $9.00-$11.50
Max loss: $11.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside: ~$121.50; Upside: ~$143.50 (using midpoint cost estimate)
Trigger: Enter up to the day before the expiry if you expect a move > the Apr17 EM ±$6.27 or if IV is not already collapsing into the trade.
Straddle captures large unilateral moves; PLTR's historical EPS beats bias to upside but the biggest risk is IV compression with a pinned print near $135.
Outperforms: Actual move on or after earnings exceeds the 4d EM by >30–40% (i.e., >~$8–9 move) or a directional gap occurs.
Underperforms: Price pins near $132-$135 with IV crush; small moves inside the EM will bleed premium.
Debit call spread (upside-lean, lower-cost)
Buy 2026-04-24 132.00-140.00 call spread (buy 132C, sell 140C).
Debit: $3.80-$5.40
Max loss: $5.40
Max gain: $4.60
BE: $136.60
Trigger: Enter after earnings if the print shows upside momentum and IV for Apr24 calls does not spike above current ~51.0%.
Captures directional upside with defined risk, uses the slightly richer May-term skew while avoiding the immediate Apr17 pin risk.
Outperforms: Post-earnings gap/continuous moves push spot above ~137 with sustained follow-through into the $140 area.
Underperforms: Price pins between $132-$136 or IV collapses and upside fails to reach breakeven.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings date is 2026-05-04 (TBD) — material guidance or revenue surprises can gap beyond the 2026-04-17 EM ±$6.27 (4.7%) and breach short iron wings.
!IV crush impact: Short-term expiries (Apr17) have ATM IV 50.8% and will compress after news; long-vol trades must overcome both move and post-event compression.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid (Total OI 3,044,555; active strikes 118) but wide bid/ask on some wings — use limit orders for multi-leg fills.
!Sizing: Because dealers are long gamma (GEX +$21.9M) and pinning is concentrated, size premium-selling carefully — a tail gap can produce quick losses despite positive expected theta.
!Concentration risk: Large call OI wall at $140-$155 may cap upside; heavy put OI at $120 increases downside support until gamma flip near $120.

What to Watch

?Price behavior relative to the 2026-04-17 EM [$126.09 - $138.64] and whether it pins toward $135.00 (Max Pain).
?Unusual Apr17 put prints at $132/$133/$134 (vol and OI spikes) — indicates dealer hedging and short-delta pressure.
?IV trajectory into Apr17 and Apr24 (current ATM IVs: 50.8% / 51.0%).
?Call-side premium flow into $130/$135 and rising OI at $140-$155 that could act as a ceiling.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.