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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $132.51EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.96
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+3.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.99
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings window is in a high-vol, trending-gamma regime with dealers net short gamma (Total GEX $-34.1M) and concentrated call OI around $150-$160. Best strategy is a premium-selling iron‑condor or short strangle into the 2‑day event (2026-04-10) sized small because IV is elevated (ATM 62.5%) and downside dealer amplification is possible. Key risk: a gap beyond the 2‑day EM rails ($135.56–$145.96) driven by guidance or a large directional print that defeats the pinning at $147–$150.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.2% from MP
Most important: Monitor IV into 2026-04-10 (ATM 62.5% on 4/10 vs 53.7% on 4/17) and whether order flow pushes pinning toward $150 (heavy call OI / GEX +$7.8M at $150).
📌Max pain near-term: $147 (4/10) moving to $145 (4/17) — expect pinning pressure in the $145–$150 band.
⚠️Total GEX is negative $-34.1M — dealers short gamma can accelerate gaps; keep stops/size conservative.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Gamma flip ~120 (put OI concentration 20,562 = 14.7% below spot) — below $120 dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (TBD) (26 days)unknown

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): 7$5.20 (3.7%) [$135.56 - $145.96]
  • 2026-04-17 (9d): 9$9.47 (6.7%) [$131.28 - $150.23]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp short-dated spike: ATM 62.5% (2026-04-10) compresses to 53.7% (2026-04-17) and ~52.5% by 4/24 — clear earnings kink on the 2d expiry.

Crush estimate: ~8–10 vol pts from 62.5% back toward the 50–54% neighborhood for front-month options (2–9d term structure), implying meaningful but not catastrophic crush.

Skew: Puts are relatively rich at the front end (e.g., $140 put IV 62.5%) while call OI concentration sits out near $150–$160.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-12-31, 2025-09-30, 2025-06-30; 2025-03-31 met est)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided; historical moves show consistent positive EPS surprises but no large blowouts in the supplied table

Directional bias: Tendency toward upside surprises in recent quarters (3 of 4 positive surprises)

Key Levels

1$120.00 gamma flip
2EM (2d): $135.56-$145.96
3Call OI wall: $150-$160

Flow Highlights

Very large net premium seen at distant strikes (PLTR260618P00320000 PUT $320.00 net flow shows Put-side heavy net $-216,164,936)

Unrelated tail/junk flows dominate premium figures but reflect aggressive put-buying/fund flows at far tails; not directly informative for near-term earnings.

Heavy call OI and GEX concentration at $150: +$7.8M GEX at $150.00 (pin magnet, +6.6% from spot) and top premium flow at $150.00 shows net -$18,070,000

Dealer positioning and flow are aligned to pin/attract price into the $147–$150 area into expirations — increases probability of pinning to $147–$150 absent a large gap.

Strategies

Short iron‑condor (earnings crush sell)
Sell 4/10 145 put / buy 4/10 140 put; sell 4/10 150 call / buy 4/10 155 call
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $2.20
BE: Put-side: 142.20 / Call-side: 152.20
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before 2026-04-10 if IV remains near current 62.5% and bid/ask spreads stay tight
Front‑week IV elevated (62.5%) with concentrated call OI and positive GEX near $150 creating pin risk; selling premium captures crush and benefits from pinning tendencies.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 2‑day EM rails ($135.56–$145.96) and IV compresses after earnings
Underperforms: A gap >~3.7% beyond EM or a strong directional surprise drives price through wing strikes
Long straddle (directional/volatility play)
Buy 4/10 140 straddle (buy 140 call + buy 140 put) exp 2026-04-10
Max loss: $5.28
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 135.48 / 146.04 (cost-based breakevens)
Trigger: Enter up to 1 day before earnings if preview flow pushes IV higher; avoid entering if IV >70%
Pure volatility play: front‑week ATM IV is 62.5% and historical quarters trend modest upside surprises — use if you expect a directional/guidance shock bigger than market-implied EM.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 2‑day EM (~±$5.20) by >30% or when IV remains elevated into print
Underperforms: Stock pins near $147–$150 (dealer pinning) and IV collapses sharply post‑earnings
Bull call spread (asymmetric upside with limited risk)
Buy 4/17 145 call / Sell 4/17 150 call (debit) exp 2026-04-17
Debit: $0.90-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
Max gain: $3.60
BE: $146.40
Trigger: Enter after earnings if price closes >146 and implieds on the 4/17 strip settle lower than current 53.7%
Uses the cheaper 9‑day term (ATM 53.7%) to express upside toward the call OI wall at $150 while capping costs; aligns with historical tendency to beat estimates.
Outperforms: Post-earnings moves up into the $150 area but IV collapses slower on the 9d than the 2d front, making spread cheap relative to pure calls
Underperforms: Immediate post-earnings collapse or pin to $147 with no further follow-through

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 2‑day EM ±$5.20 (3.7%) but guidance/print can produce gaps beyond the EM — iron‑condor wings must be sized accordingly.
!IV crush: front‑week IV 62.5% implies an >~8–10 vol‑point reversion post‑event; long premium buyers face steep decay post‑print.
!Dealer short gamma: Total GEX $-34.1M means dealer flows can amplify intraday moves — faster fills and slippage possible during gaps.
!Liquidity: Front‑week strikes show heavy OI (e.g., 4/10 $150 call OI 12,111; $155 call OI 21,586) — good liquidity at common strikes but wide spreads on deep tail strikes.
!Sizing: Keep positions small — recommended starter size <1–2% of portfolio for premium-selling trades given amplification and potential large moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 2026-04-10 (ATM 62.5% on 4/10 vs 53.7% on 4/17)
?Unusual flow at near strikes: activity in 4/10 $142–$146 calls and $140–$145 puts (several high-vol trades listed)
?Pinning signals: GEX +$7.8M at $150 and max pain at $147 (4/10) shifting toward $145 by 4/17
?Dealer hedging: watch intraday gamma compression/expansion given Total GEX $-34.1M
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.