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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $137.15EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.20
3.1% from close
Price Gap
-3.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
11
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/4 (inferred from IV kink). IV is elevated at ~49% for the post-earnings expiration (5/8). The stock has a strong history of beating EPS estimates and tends to move less than its expected move. A short premium strategy is favored, but the high gamma pinning near the spot adds noise.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 clear IV kink; -0.5 gamma pinning near spot; -0.5 high VIX regime
Most important: Historical pattern shows consistent EPS beats but muted price reactions relative to elevated IV.
📅Earnings date inferred as ~5/04 from IV term structure kink at 5/08 expiry. Confirm via company IR.
📊Historical EPS beat rate is 100% over last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +$0.13.
⚖️Spot ($146.28) is below nearest max pain ($150), and GEX is strongly positive. Expect pinning pressure upward toward $150 near-term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 60%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$38.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-315.8M, P/C 1.17)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 2.5% (spot $146.28 vs MP $150)
Gamma flip: ~$50.00 — Gamma flip far below spot at ~$50. Current GEX is positive and mean-reverting, suggesting pinning pressure near current levels.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (34 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 5/08 (38d): ±$22.10 (15.1%) [$124.18 - $168.38]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/08 expiration (58.9% IV) vs 4/24 (49.2%). This confirms the market is pricing earnings risk into the 5/8 weekly.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~45-48% range.

Skew: P/C ratio of 1.17 and net negative premium flow suggest put buying pressure, but top premium flows show heavy OTM put selling (e.g., $320P). Skew is mixed.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price data, but EPS surprises have been consistent and significant (+$0.01 to +$0.25).

Directional bias: Direction unclear from provided data, but consistent beats suggest upside bias.

Key Levels

1$145 (Max Pain 4/02, 4/17, 4/24)
2$150 (Max Pain 3/27, 5/01)
3$142/$149 (2-day EM bounds)
4$124/$170 (38-day EM bounds)

Flow Highlights

Massive OTM Put Selling: $320P 6/18 saw $208.8M in net premium paid to sellers (Vol=12,000 vs OI=700).

Institutional selling of disaster puts for yield, not a near-term directional bet.

Heavy ATM Activity for 4/02: High volume in $142-$149 strikes for both puts and calls (e.g., $145P: Vol 16,701).

Traders positioning for immediate pinning around $145-$150 max pain levels ahead of weekly expiry.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $124/$120P x $167.5/$172.5C 5/08
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $1.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: Below $126.50 / Above $165.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before inferred earnings date (late April), targeting IV >55%.
Sells elevated IV (58.9%) around earnings. Strikes set just outside the expected move to provide a buffer, aligned with historical tendency for significant EPS beats but potentially muted price moves.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 38-day expected move ($124-$170) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes by more than $5.
Put Credit Spread (Bullish Bias)
Sell $130P / Buy $125P 5/08
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $3.20
Max gain: $1.80
BE: $128.20
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $145 support, 10-14 days before earnings.
Leverages strong historical EPS beat rate, positive gamma regime, and spot below max pain (suggesting upward pinning pressure). Defines risk while collecting high premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $130, benefiting from IV crush and positive gamma pinning.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $125 on weak guidance or market sell-off.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion)
Buy $146 Straddle 5/08
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Below $124 / Above $168 (approx, depends on debit)
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips below 50% before earnings, indicating undervaluation of event risk.
A contrarian play given the high starting IV. Justified only if you believe the market is underestimating the potential for a guidance-driven mega-move, despite historical under-moves.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 15.1% implied move.
Underperforms: Stock pins, IV crushes heavily post-event.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 15.1% expected move is wide. A guidance miss or major beat could trigger a gap beyond condor wings.
!IV Crush: High starting IV (59%) means crush will be severe. Long premium strategies need a very large move to profit.
!Liquidity: Excellent liquidity with 2.8M+ OI. Tight spreads on near-term and weekly options.
!Gamma Pinning: Positive GEX and spot near multiple max pain levels ($145, $150) increase chance of chop and pinning into weekly expirations, adding noise to directional setups.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 5/08 expiration as we approach late April.
?Price action relative to the $145-$150 zone for pinning clues.
?Any unusual flow into OTM calls for 5/08, which could signal anticipation of a major upside guide.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.