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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $116.70EOD only

Max Pain

$126.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.98

4.3% from close

Price Gap

+9.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.91

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

PLTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with downside risk toward gamma flip at $110 and 1w low $106.22. Negative GEX amplifies selloffs but positive DEX provides dip support. High vol and spot far below max pain reduce pinning probability.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment (negative GEX, mixed flow leans bearish); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.6 uncertainty.

Supports: Negative GEX, high vol regime, spot below EM guardrails (1w low $106.22).
Conflicts: Positive dealer DEX (+94.5M shares) provides dip support; mixed flow; gamma flip $110 may hold.

⚠️Negative GEX -68.2M amplifies selling pressure.

📉Spot 7.7% below max pain $123 lowers pin probability.

🔑Gamma flip ~$110 key support; break opens $103.75.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol; IV elevated vs typical; VIX 18.6 contributes.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma with negative GEX -68.2M; gamma flip at $110.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow net premium; put OI elevated near $110 strike.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~$113 (implied) below $123 MP by ~7.7%.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term expiry (June 26) with $123 max pain concentration; spot far below drives pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$109.39$117.61

Test gamma flip $110 or break to 2d low $109.39.

Next 1 week

$106.22$120.78

Downside toward 1w low $106.22 if $110 breaks.

Next 2 weeks

$103.75$123.25

Extended downside possible to $103.75 if support fails.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $123 (2026-06-26); $122 (2026-07-02); $130 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $109.39/$117.61; 1w $106.22/$120.78

Support: $110.00 · $103.75

Resistance: $123.00 · $123.25

Gamma flip: ~$110.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,893 (3.1% below spot)

Structural: Support $110 (gamma flip) and $103.75 (2w low); resistance $123 (max pain) and $123.25 (2w high).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-68.2M

DEX: +94.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$110 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,893 (3.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma (-$68.2M) and long delta (+94.5M shares); gamma flip at $110 near current spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: PLTR IV likely rich vs VIX 18.6 due to high vol regime; vol premium elevated.

Term structure: Term structure steep near June 26 expiry, flattening thereafter.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts near $110 support, but risk of gap below.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative $49.7M, put/call vol ratio 0.70 (calls more active but sold), indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 50.3 call 114 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 56.1x, IV 50.3%. High activity; net premium negative suggests sold calls, bearish. 51.9 call 115 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 55.0x, IV 51.9%. Similar aggressive selling pressure. 49.8 put 113 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 11.7x, IV 49.8%. Elevated put activity could be bearish hedge or direct sell.

Unusual: 49.7 call 118 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 21,024 vs OI 1,218; vol/OI 17.3x. Notable call volume, likely sold given net premium. 49.7 call 116 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 17.6x, IV 49.7%. Another heavy call print consistent with selling. 55.4 put 90 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 6.4x, IV 55.4%. Deep OTM put; low premium, possible small bearish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Positive dealer DEX may cause sharp bounce from $110.

!Gamma flip holds, triggering short squeeze.

!Macro VIX spike increases downside risk.

!Max pain pin could draw spot higher if vol compresses.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$105.00 put spread Why now: Negative GEX amplifies selloffs; defined-risk spread limits cost and captures move below support.	DEX support may cause bounce; max loss if PLTR stays above $110.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 put Why now: High IV and negative GEX favor large downside moves; long put offers convexity.	Time decay and vega crush if stock stalls; full premium at risk.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00/$105.00 put spread

Buy $110/$105 put spread to profit from PLTR decline toward gamma flip.

Why this play: Defined risk limits cost while capturing downside from negative GEX and selloffs.

Debit: $1.89-$2.31

Max loss: $2.31

BE: $107.69

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $123 invalidation; take profit near $105.

Traders seeking limited risk bearish exposure without high upfront cost.

Long Put

Buy 2026-08-21 $110.00 put

Buy $110 put to benefit from downside acceleration with positive gamma.

Why this play: High IV and negative GEX favor convex option for large downside moves.

Debit: $7.45-$9.10

Max loss: $9.10

BE: $100.90

Mgmt: Manage with stop loss at $123; scale out on strong drops.

Aggressive traders comfortable with higher cost and wider losses.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot touches $123 resistance with bearish rejection → Buy the 2026-08-21 $110/$105 put spread

IFIf spot breaks below $110 gamma flip → Buy the 2026-08-21 $110 put

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $123 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; use $110 as pivot. Below $110 favors long put; bounces to $123 favor put spread. Invalidate above $123.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.