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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $133.25EOD only
Max Pain
$130.00
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.24
3.2% from close
Price Gap
-3.25
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
95
High premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
PLTR Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by bullish flow and spot above max pain, but high vol and short gamma (-18.4M) add caution. Near-term expiry (2026-06-18) could see pinning or sharp moves.

Confidence:
5 / 10
Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot near MP; +0.5 VIX 18.
Supports: Bullish flow, spot above MP, VIX elevated.
Conflicts: Short gamma, high vol, market sell-off today.
📈Bullish flow but short gamma amplifies moves.
📌Spot above MP $129, pinning possible at expiry.
⚠️VIX 18, high vol regime increases tail risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol – IV elevated vs historical, VIX 18.44 suggests larger expected moves.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending state with negative net gamma (-18.4M), dealers short gamma, flip near $120.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow favoring calls, despite negative gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain ($129), typical bullish posture for near-term expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Close to 2026-06-18 expiry, high vol and short gamma create event-specific dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$127.25$134.01
EM guardrails bound action; resistance at upper range.
Next 1 week
$122.63$138.63
Broader range; momentum could push toward resistance.
Next 2 weeks
$120.38$140.88
Extended range; downside support at $120.38.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $129 (2026-06-18); $134 (2026-06-26); $139 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $127.25/$134.01; 1w $122.63/$138.63
Support: $130.00 · $129.00 · $125.00
Resistance: $140.00 · $140.88
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,341 (8.1% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $129 (06/18), $134 (06/26), $139 (07/02). EM guardrails: 2d $127.25/$134.01; 1w $122.63/$138.63. Support: $130, $129, $125. Resistance: $140, $140.88. Gamma flip ~$120.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-18.4M

DEX: +95.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$120 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,341 (8.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX: -$18.4M (short gamma); DEX: +95.2M shares (long delta). Gamma flip near $120 via put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is elevated relative to VIX, common for PLTR in high-vol regimes.

Term structure: Contango for near-term expiries due to event risk, flatter for later.

Skew: Put skew elevated from downside hedging; opportunity: sell put spreads near support $129 to capture time decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $1.06M with put/call volume ratio 0.57, but unusual put activity (e.g., deep OTM put spike) suggests mixed sentiment; overall still bullish leaning.

Directional prints: 46.8 call 135 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 39591 vs OI 13334 (ratio 3.0); likely bought for upside; preferred read: bought. 51.3 call 129 ITM 2026-07-24 — Vol 737 vs OI 163 (ratio 4.5); likely bought for bullish; preferred read: bought. 47.3 put 134 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 13392 vs OI 2171 (ratio 6.2); likely sold for premium; preferred read: sold (bullish).

Unusual: 85.9 put 70 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 3008 vs OI 313 (ratio 9.6); deep OTM put with huge volume spike; notable. 186.7 put 175 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 1526 vs OI 294 (ratio 5.2); high IV; unusual activity. 42.7 put 132 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 13067 vs OI 2444 (ratio 5.3); heavy put volume near $134; notable.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market sell-off could trigger stop-losses and amplify short gamma.
!VIX spike above 20 raises IV and destroys premium sellers.
!Pin risk at expiry; spot may deviate from max pain.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $130.00/$150.00 call spread
Why now: Captures upside with limited risk; high IV supports debit.
Max loss limited to debit; requires stock above short strike at expiry.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $140.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 call
Why now: Sell rich near-term vol, buy long-dated call for earnings follow-through.
Upside capped if short call expires ITM; downside from long call time decay.
Long callModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 call
Why now: Bullish flow and positive delta exposure; limited downside risk.
Full premium at risk if stock declines; time decay accelerates.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $130.00/$150.00 call spread
Buy $130/$150 call spread for defined risk.
Why this play: Limited risk upside capture, ideal for event-specific bullish bias with high IV.
Debit: $6.35-$7.76
Max loss: $7.76
BE: $137.76
Mgmt: Exit near earnings expiration or if spot drops below $130.
Traders seeking capped risk and profit.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $140.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 call
Sell $140 call, buy $135 call for time decay benefit.
Why this play: Sells near-term vol, buys longer-dated call for follow-through.
Debit: $6.21-$7.59
Max loss: $7.59
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short call if challenged; hold long call through earnings.
Traders expecting volatility contraction after earnings.
#3
Long Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $135.00 call
Buy $135 call for simple bullish exposure.
Why this play: Direct bullish bet with unlimited upside but higher premium and IV risk.
Debit: $9.54-$11.66
Max loss: $11.66
BE: $146.66
Mgmt: Set stop loss at $130; consider taking profit before earnings IV crush.
Aggressive traders with high conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $130 support for 2 consecutive 5-min candles → THEN enter bull call spread: buy 2026-08-21 $130/$150 call spread for $6.35-$7.76 debit
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot reaches $138.63 (1-week resistance) and stalls → THEN sell 2026-07-17 $140 call (short leg of call diagonal) to reduce vega
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaks below $130 (invalidation level) → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into 8/3 earnings; spot above max pain but short gamma (-18.4M) adds caution. Support $130, $129, $125; resistance $140, $140.88. EM guardrails 2d $127.25-$134.01, 1w $122.63-$138.63. Risk: market sell-off, VIX spike >20, pin risk. Prefer bull call spread at support; adjust at resistance; exit below $130.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.