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PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. PetrobClose $19.83EOD only

Max Pain

$20.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.54

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+0.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.10

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PBR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

PBR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 strong bearish flow regime (net prem -$7.4M, P/C 2.18); +1 GEX pinning aligns with mean-reverting pressure; -0.5 spot above max pain suggests some upside tension

Watch next session: $17 PUT OI and flow for downside magnet; Spot reaction near $20.50-$21.00 resistance zone

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$7.4M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 2.18 — extreme put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.76 — moderate put lean in positioning

Aggressive put buying dominates the flow, with net premium heavily skewed bearish. The high P/C volume ratio of 2.18 indicates strong institutional hedging or directional downside bets, particularly concentrated at the $15 and $17 strikes.

Notable Prints

PBR 4/2 $19.50 Put

Vol: 6,908

OI: 1,565

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 43.0%

Notional: ~$1.35M

Intent: Near-term directional put buying / protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: High volume relative to OI in a near-dated put suggests a fresh bearish bet or urgent hedge against a move below $19.50. The IV of 43% is below the average, indicating this was likely a buyer, not a seller.

PBR 5/15 $20.00 Put

Vol: 7,131

OI: 3,442

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 44.9%

Notional: ~$1.43M

Intent: Mid-term directional put buying / protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: Significant volume in a May expiration put at the $20 strike, which is a key psychological level and near current price. This adds to the large OI cluster at $20 and suggests institutions are building downside protection or outright bearish bets for a move over the next 6 weeks.

PBR 9/18 $22.00 Put

Vol: 500

OI: 145

Vol/OI: 3.5x

IV: 82.6%

Notional: ~$110k

Intent: Long-dated OTM put purchase (likely hedge)

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: The extremely high IV (82.6%) suggests this was likely a buyer paying up for long-dated protection. The $22 strike is above spot, indicating a hedge against a rally that fails and reverses lower over a longer timeframe.

PBR 5/1 $22.00 Call

Vol: 271

OI: 111

Vol/OI: 2.4x

IV: 41.5%

Notional: ~$60k

Intent: OTM call purchase (speculative upside or hedge against short puts)

Dual read: Bought (bullish/speculative) or sold (covered call/neutral)

Read-through: Smaller size but notable as one of the few call-side unusual prints. Could be a speculative long call or part of a more complex spread (e.g., a call debit spread or a hedge for a larger short put position). Does not offset the dominant put flow.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Small OTM call flow at $22 and $25, but dwarfed by put activity.

Put additions: Heavy at $15, $17, and $20 strikes across multiple expirations (Apr, May).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX of +$88.8M indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime, which aligns with heavy put OI below spot creating a gravitational pull lower.

OI clusters: Major call wall at $20 (69K OI). Major put walls at $10 (60K OI), $12 (59K OI), $15 (38K OI), and $17 (41K OI). This creates a strong 'floor' of put support far below and a nearer 'ceiling' of call resistance.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of large-scale hedging. The massive net negative premium at the $15 and $17 puts (-$3.9M and -$5.2M respectively) points to institutional buying of downside protection, likely on existing long equity positions.

Max pain context: Spot ($20.75) is notably above the nearest max pain levels ($19-$20). This creates a tension where the pinning force from GEX and large put OI below pulls price down toward max pain, but the current price is resisting.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive OI in $10 and $12 puts is likely legacy/strategic positioning (e.g., married puts for tax or accounting purposes) and not indicative of new directional flow due to very low volume.

~Some of the near-dated put flow (e.g., 4/2 $19.50P) could be rolling of existing hedges as expiration approaches, though the high vol/oi suggests new interest.

~The high IV in the 9/18 $22P suggests a structured trade or a specific hedge purchase, not broad market sentiment.

Key Conclusions

🐻Flow regime is decisively bearish with extreme put volume dominance (P/C 2.18) and -$7.4M net premium.

🧲Heavy put OI at $15 and $17, combined with positive GEX, creates a strong magnetic pull toward the $17-$19 zone.

⚖️Spot above max pain creates a conflict: flow/GEX suggests mean reversion lower, but price is holding above key pain levels for now.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.