PBR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 strong bearish flow regime (net prem -$7.4M, P/C 2.18); +1 GEX pinning aligns with mean-reverting pressure; -0.5 spot above max pain suggests some upside tension

Watch next session: $17 PUT OI and flow for downside magnet; Spot reaction near $20.50-$21.00 resistance zone

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$7.4M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 2.18 — extreme put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.76 — moderate put lean in positioning

Aggressive put buying dominates the flow, with net premium heavily skewed bearish. The high P/C volume ratio of 2.18 indicates strong institutional hedging or directional downside bets, particularly concentrated at the $15 and $17 strikes.

Notable Prints

PBR 4/2 $19.50 Put

Vol: 6,908

OI: 1,565

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 43.0%

Notional: ~$1.35M

Intent: Near-term directional put buying / protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: High volume relative to OI in a near-dated put suggests a fresh bearish bet or urgent hedge against a move below $19.50. The IV of 43% is below the average, indicating this was likely a buyer, not a seller.

PBR 5/15 $20.00 Put

Vol: 7,131

OI: 3,442

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 44.9%

Notional: ~$1.43M

Intent: Mid-term directional put buying / protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold/covered (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: Significant volume in a May expiration put at the $20 strike, which is a key psychological level and near current price. This adds to the large OI cluster at $20 and suggests institutions are building downside protection or outright bearish bets for a move over the next 6 weeks.

PBR 9/18 $22.00 Put

Vol: 500

OI: 145

Vol/OI: 3.5x

IV: 82.6%

Notional: ~$110k

Intent: Long-dated OTM put purchase (likely hedge)

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (premium collection)

Read-through: The extremely high IV (82.6%) suggests this was likely a buyer paying up for long-dated protection. The $22 strike is above spot, indicating a hedge against a rally that fails and reverses lower over a longer timeframe.

PBR 5/1 $22.00 Call

Vol: 271

OI: 111

Vol/OI: 2.4x

IV: 41.5%

Notional: ~$60k

Intent: OTM call purchase (speculative upside or hedge against short puts)

Dual read: Bought (bullish/speculative) or sold (covered call/neutral)

Read-through: Smaller size but notable as one of the few call-side unusual prints. Could be a speculative long call or part of a more complex spread (e.g., a call debit spread or a hedge for a larger short put position). Does not offset the dominant put flow.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Small OTM call flow at $22 and $25, but dwarfed by put activity.

Put additions: Heavy at $15, $17, and $20 strikes across multiple expirations (Apr, May).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX of +$88.8M indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime, which aligns with heavy put OI below spot creating a gravitational pull lower.

OI clusters: Major call wall at $20 (69K OI). Major put walls at $10 (60K OI), $12 (59K OI), $15 (38K OI), and $17 (41K OI). This creates a strong 'floor' of put support far below and a nearer 'ceiling' of call resistance.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of large-scale hedging. The massive net negative premium at the $15 and $17 puts (-$3.9M and -$5.2M respectively) points to institutional buying of downside protection, likely on existing long equity positions.

Max pain context: Spot ($20.75) is notably above the nearest max pain levels ($19-$20). This creates a tension where the pinning force from GEX and large put OI below pulls price down toward max pain, but the current price is resisting.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive OI in $10 and $12 puts is likely legacy/strategic positioning (e.g., married puts for tax or accounting purposes) and not indicative of new directional flow due to very low volume.

~Some of the near-dated put flow (e.g., 4/2 $19.50P) could be rolling of existing hedges as expiration approaches, though the high vol/oi suggests new interest.

~The high IV in the 9/18 $22P suggests a structured trade or a specific hedge purchase, not broad market sentiment.

Key Conclusions

🐻Flow regime is decisively bearish with extreme put volume dominance (P/C 2.18) and -$7.4M net premium.

🧲Heavy put OI at $15 and $17, combined with positive GEX, creates a strong magnetic pull toward the $17-$19 zone.

⚖️Spot above max pain creates a conflict: flow/GEX suggests mean reversion lower, but price is holding above key pain levels for now.

Read the Flow analysis for PBR for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.