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PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. PetrobClose $19.83EOD only

Max Pain

$20.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.54

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+0.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.10

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PBR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

PBR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull lower toward the $19-$20 max pain cluster. Confidence: 4/10. Spot is 9.2% above the nearest max pain, creating a strong mean-reversion magnet. High positive GEX ($+88.8M) suggests pinning pressure, but bearish net premium flow ($-7.4M) and a P/C volume ratio of 2.18 signal underlying selling pressure.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradiction (pinning vs bearish flow); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.2% from MP. No override: mechanical score captures the conflicting signals.

Supports: Strong GEX pinning ($+88.8M), rising max pain trend ($19→$20), deep put OI floors at $10-$17.
Conflicts: Bearish net premium flow ($-7.4M), high P/C volume ratio (2.18), spot significantly above MP.

⚖️Spot ($20.75) vs MP ($19) conflict drives mean-reversion thesis.

📉P/C Vol 2.18 shows heavy put volume despite positive GEX.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 52.9% — High vol regime. Selling premium is attractive if you can manage the elevated risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$88.8M — Strong pinning regime concentrated near spot, suppressing volatility and pulling price toward max pain.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium $-7.4M, P/C Vol 2.18 — Bearish flow regime. Institutional money is paying for downside protection.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($20.75) is 9.2% above nearest max pain ($19) — Strong mean-reversion magnet lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $19 to $20 across the next several expirations, and the bearish flow/GEX pinning dynamic is consistent. This suggests a multi-week drift lower, not just a one-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$19.80$21.70

GEX pinning and spot-MP gap drive mean reversion; break above $21.70 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$19.59$21.91

Max pain at $19.50 (4/2) and $20 (4/10) are key targets; resistance at $22.50 OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$19.39$22.11

Flow and pinning support downside; a break above $22.50 OI wall would signal a regime shift.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $19 (2026-03-27); $20 (2026-04-02); $20 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $19.80/$21.70; 1w $19.59/$21.91

Support: $10.00 · $12.00 · $17.00

Resistance: $22.50

Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 60,643

Structural: Massive call OI wall at $22-$22.50 caps upside; deep put OI floors at $10, $12, $15, $17 provide distant but significant support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+88.8M

DEX: +67.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$10 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 60,643)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip is ~$10, far below spot. Dealers are long gamma (positive GEX), meaning they will hedge by **selling into rallies and buying into dips**, reinforcing the pinning/range-bound behavior around current levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 52.9% — Extremely high. Premium selling has significant edge on a vol crush, but directional risk is elevated.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 49.0% (2d) > 40.9% (17d). Kinks at 5/08 (53.7%) and 11/20 (56.1%). Near-term vol is rich vs. mid-term.

Skew: Near-term (2-10d) IV is 5-10 vol points richer than 17-45d expirations. Supports calendar spreads selling the front week and buying further out.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$7.4M bearish; P/C Vol 2.18 (heavy put volume), P/C OI 0.76.

Directional prints: $17P 4/17 vol 25,398 vs OI 41,482 — large block likely bought for protection. $19.50P 4/2 vol 6,908 vs OI 1,565 (4.4x) — fresh bearish positioning.

Unusual: $22P 9/18 vol 500 at IV 82.6% — expensive long-dated tail hedge or speculative put sale.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$10 is irrelevant near-term; the real risk is a break above the $22.50 OI wall, which could trigger a short squeeze.

!High IV (52.9%) means long premium strategies face rapid time decay; short premium faces large moves.

!Inverted term structure near-term implies a potential vol crush after the 4/2 expiry.

!Macro/commodity risk for PBR (oil price volatility) not captured in options data.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Strong mean-reversion magnet to $19-$20 suggests better entry lower.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning can suppress downside moves; better expressed via options.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $22.5C 4/17 (~30 DTE) for ~$0.30 credit.	Stock drifts to max pain, missing upside if it squeezes above $22.50.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $19/$18 put spread 4/17 for ~$0.30 credit. Targets max pain zone with defined risk.	Break below $18.35 (45d EM low) invalidates.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	High IV, bearish flow, and spot above MP make long calls low-probability.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $21/$20 bear put spread 4/10 for ~$0.45 debit. Bets on drift to max pain.	Pinning GEX can limit downside; time decay in high IV hurts.
Iron condor	Moderate	$19/$18P x $22/$22.5C 4/17. Sells EM wings near OI walls.	High IV >28 and GEX positive per threshold; edge is moderate due to high vol.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $20.5C 4/2 (IV 49%), buy $20.5C 4/17 (IV 40.9%). Reverse calendar for ~$0.15 credit. Bets on pin near $20 and near-term vol crush.	Spot moves away from $20.5, hurting short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $15C 1/15/27 (IV 43.5%), sell $22.5C 4/17 against it. Leverages low LEAPS IV to finance bearish call sales.	Long-dated thesis required; stock may drift lower than LEAPS strike.

Top Plays

Bearish Put Calendar

Sell $20P 4/2, Buy $20P 4/17

Capitalizes on inverted term structure (49% vs 41% IV) and bearish drift thesis. You collect a credit for betting spot stays near/passes through $20, with the long leg protecting against a larger drop.

Credit: $0.10-$0.20

Max loss: Unlimited below long put strike, but defined risk profile vs. short put alone.

BE: Dynamic; optimal if spot is at $20 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close if short leg reaches 50% max profit (≈$0.10). Exit entire spread if spot closes above $21.70 (2d EM high).

Traders who believe in the mean-reversion to $20 but want defined risk and positive theta.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $19/$18 Put Spread 4/17

Direct expression of the multi-week mean-reversion thesis toward max pain ($19-$20). High IV provides attractive credit for selling strikes below the expected range.

Credit: $0.25-$0.35

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $18.65

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% max profit. Exit if spot closes above $21 (above weekly EM high) or below $18.35 (45d EM low).

Defined-risk premium sellers looking for a bearish drift with a clear max loss.

LEAPS-Supported Covered Call

Buy $15C 1/15/27, Sell $22.5C 4/17

A 45+ DTE play that leverages the structural regime: low LEAPS IV (43.5%) finances repeated bearish call sales against the strong $22.50 OI wall. The long DTE improves risk/reward by providing long-delta hedge and reducing capital outlay vs. owning stock.

Debit: N/A

Max loss: Cost of LEAPS minus net credits received.

BE: $15 + net debit paid for LEAPS diagonal.

Mgmt: Roll short call up/out if challenged. Consider closing the entire position if PBR breaks and holds above $22.50.

Traders with a multi-month horizon who want to generate income against a capped upside, with lower breakeven than stock ownership.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $21.70 (2d EM high) and fails → Enter bear put spread: Buy $21.5/$20.5 put spread 4/10.

IFSpot declines to $20.00 (key max pain level) → Enter short put calendar: Sell $20P 4/10, Buy $20P 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $22.50 (major OI wall) → Exit all bearish/short premium positions (put spreads, short calendars).

EXITIV on 4/2 expiry drops below 40% (vol crush) → Take profit on any short premium positions expiring 4/2.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis is a multi-week mean-reversion drift from $20.75 down toward the $19-$20 max pain cluster, supported by positive GEX pinning and bearish flow. Invalidation is a close above the $22.50 OI wall. The regime favors selling premium (especially puts) into weakness and using calendars to exploit rich near-term vol. Top Plays: 1) Bearish Put Calendar (tactical, inverted vol), 2) Put Spread (direct bearish drift), 3) LEAPS Diagonal (structural, income against resistance).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.