base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 spot above max pain; -1 bearish flow
Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (53.7%) and 11/20 (56.1%), dips at 4/17 (40.9%)
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 9.2% (spot $20.75 vs MP $19)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$88.8M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Gamma flip ~$10 based on massive put OI. Above $10, positive GEX supports pinning.
OI concentrations: Major put walls at $10 (60,643 OI), $12 (59,013 OI), $15 (38,387 OI), $17 (41,482 OI). Call wall at $20 (69,417 OI) and $22.50 (61,321 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $17.00/$15.00 Put Spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Strikes align with massive OI support ($17: 41,482 OI, $15: 38,387 OI). High IV (44.1%) provides good credit. Pinning regime and spot well above strikes offer high probability. Expected move is $2.40, giving a $1.40 buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.29 credit). Roll down/out if $17 tested. Exit entire position if spot closes below $16.50.
#2cash-secured put
Sell $17.50 Put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For those comfortable with assignment. Strike is above the major $17 OI wall, providing a buffer. IV of 45.7% yields strong premium. Positive GEX supports price staying above this level. Acceptable if willing to own shares at $17.50 net.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put tested. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared for assignment if spot falls below $17.50 at expiration.
#3iron condor
Sell $17/$16P x $24/$25C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning range between major OI clusters ($17P, $20C, $22.50C). Wide 45 DTE wings ($16, $25) are outside the expected move ($2.40). High IV provides decent credit for defined risk. Positive GEX favors range-bound action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side for credit. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#4covered call
Own 100 shares at ~$20.75, Sell $22.50 Call 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Strike is at the major call wall (61,321 OI), which acts as resistance. High IV (44.1%) generates significant premium. Provides 8.4% upside to strike plus call premium.
Mgmt: Roll up/out if call tested. Close call at 70% profit and re-sell. Be prepared for shares to be called away at $22.50.
!Bearish Flow Alert: Net premium flow is -$7.4M with P/C ratio of 2.18, indicating institutional put buying. Monitor for sustained selling pressure.
!Massive OI at Low Strikes: Extreme put OI at $10 and $12 creates a 'gamma cliff.' A break below $17 could accelerate toward these levels due to negative delta hedging.
!IV Term Structure Kinks: High IV in Nov 2026 (56.1%) suggests longer-term event risk. Be cautious selling ultra-long-dated premium.
!Earnings in ~6 Weeks (est. 5/11): Begin closing or rolling 45 DTE positions by late April to avoid earnings volatility crush.
!Unusual Put Activity: Large put volume at $19.50 (4/2) and $20 (5/15) suggests near-term bearish bets. Watch these levels for support breaks.