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PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. PetrobClose $19.83EOD only
Max Pain
$20.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.54
2.8% from close
Price Gap
+0.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
4
Low premium
P/C OI
1.10
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PBR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
PBR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Implied earnings event within 10 days (4/10). IV is elevated at ~52%, creating a viable IV crush setup. Strong gamma pinning and bearish flow suggest a contained move, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong gamma pinning; +0.5 elevated IV; -0 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 4/10 (51.8%) vs 4/17 (40.9%), strongly implying an earnings event. Spot is pinned above max pain with massive positive GEX.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV kink at 4/10, not explicitly provided. Confirm via company IR.
📊Spot $20.75 is 9.2% above max pain ($19). Strong positive GEX suggests pinning forces are at play.
🧱Major OI/flow walls at $17P and $22.50C define likely boundaries for a contained move.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 53%)
Gamma Regime
Strong Pinning (GEX +$88.8M)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-7.4M, P/C 2.18)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 9.2% (spot $20.75 vs MP $19)
Gamma flip: ~$10.00 — Massive put OI wall at $10 creates a strong gamma flip zone below $10, but spot is far above.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-10 (10 days)inferred_from_iv_kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (10d): ±$1.17 (5.6%) [$19.59 - $21.91]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (51.8% IV) vs 4/17 (40.9%). IV drops ~11 vol points post-earnings.

Crush estimate: ~11 vol pts, back to ~41%

Skew: Bearish flow and high P/C ratio (2.18) indicate puts are in heavy demand.

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1$19.50 (EM low approx)
2$21.50 (EM high approx)
3$19.50 (4/02 MP)
4$20.00 (OI wall)
5$17.00 (Major put OI/flow)

Flow Highlights

Massive bearish premium flow at $17P and $15P (net -$5.2M and -$3.9M).

Institutions buying deep OTM puts for tail-risk protection or directional downside bets.

Unusual volume in $19.50P 4/02 (6,908 vol vs 1,565 OI).

Near-term bearish positioning ahead of the inferred earnings week.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor
Sell $19.50/$19P x $22/$22.50C 4/10
Credit: $0.35-$0.45
Max loss: $0.65
Max gain: $0.35
BE: $19.15
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before 4/10 expiration
Capitalizes on IV crush and strong gamma pinning regime. Strikes calibrated to EM and key OI levels.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $19.50-$22 range (within EM bounds).
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$0.50 in either direction.
Bear Call Spread
Sell $21.50C / Buy $22.50C 4/10
Credit: $0.15-$0.25
Max loss: $0.85
Max gain: $0.15
BE: $21.65
Trigger: On any bounce towards $21.50 resistance.
Aligns with bearish flow (P/C 2.18, net negative premium). Targets the top half of the expected move. High OI at $22.50 call provides a wall.
Outperforms: Stock stays below $21.65 through 4/10.
Underperforms: Stock rallies strongly above $21.65.
Long Put Diagonal (Defensive)
Buy $20P 4/17 / Sell $19P 4/10
Max loss: Cost of spread (~$0.60 est)
Max gain: Uncapped below $19, reduced by short put
BE: $19.40
Trigger: If bearish conviction is high and seeking defined risk.
Defined-risk bearish play that partially finances a longer-dated put. Short 4/10 put benefits from IV crush. Aligns with heavy put flow.
Outperforms: Stock sells off sharply through $19.
Underperforms: Stock rallies or pins above $20; suffers from IV crush on short leg.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 5.6% EM is significant for a $20 stock. Lack of historical move data increases uncertainty.
!IV Crush: Estimated 11 vol point drop is substantial. Long premium strategies need a large move to overcome crush.
!Liquidity: OI is decent but volume is moderate. Wide bid/ask spreads on OTM strikes possible.
!Macro/Sector: PBR is sensitive to oil prices and BRL/USD, which could drive a move independent of earnings.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/10 expiration into next week.
?Spot price action relative to $20.00 and $21.00 levels.
?Any news confirming an earnings date for early May.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.