Term structure: Term structure is flat with slight uptick at long end; front-end skew is extreme with call IV 112% vs put 86%
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-54.9M)
Gamma flip: ~$150.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,122 (4.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain at $185 (26Jun, 2Jul) and $182 (10Jul); put floor $90-$140, call wall $200-$220
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $150.00/$145.00 put wing and $180.00/$182.50 call wing
Sell put wing 150/145 and call wing 180/182.5, collect $0.54 credit. Max gain $54, max loss $446 per spread. High IV makes theta decay favorable.
Mgmt: Manage around earnings (Sep 9). Consider closing at 50% profit or if spot approaches either wing. Watch dealer gamma (-$54.9M). Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (55%).; long_call: Wide spread (80%). Substitutions: short_put: resolved contract 2026-04-17 $150.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $150.00.; long_put: resolved contract 2026-04-17 $145.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $145.00.; short_call: resolved contract 2026-04-17 $180.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $180.00.; long_call: resolved contract 2026-04-17 $182.50 missing; used 2026-06-26 $182.50.
!Extreme front-end skew: call IV 112% vs put 86%
!Negative dealer gamma (-$54.9M) may amplify moves
!Spot is 14.8% below max pain increasing pin risk