Term structure: Front-month (0 DTE) extreme IV skew; back-month ATM IV ~52% with flat structure
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-7.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,969 (2.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $190 (0 DTE), $185 (6 DTE), $192 (14 DTE). Put OI concentration at $180 gamma flip.
#1Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $200.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $200.00 call
Sell near-term OTM call, buy later expiry same strike to capture contango.
Mgmt: Monitor spot approaching $200; roll if needed.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $170.00/$165.00 put wing and $200.00/$205.00 call wing
Sell OTM put and call wings for range-bound profit.
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot nears $170 or $200.
#3Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $170.00/$165.00 put spread
Sell OTM put spread for premium with limited downside.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks above $180.
!Front-month expiry today: extreme IV skew (call 157%, put 111%)
!Negative dealer gamma ($-7.7M) can amplify sudden spot moves
!Spot 3.1% below max pain ($190) — potential reversion if theta accelerates