ORCL Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2.5 massive bearish premium flow; +1 spot at max pain; -1 high IV suggests some hedging

Watch next session: $133-$144 put flow for follow-through; Any call buying at $149-$150 to defend spot

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$119.6M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.82 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.93 — near-neutral positioning

Flow dominated by massive, concentrated bearish premium in far OTM puts. While volume P/C is only moderately elevated, the net premium is overwhelmingly negative, driven by large institutional purchases of downside protection. This is a classic 'fat tail' hedge or bearish bet.

Notable Prints

ORCL 4/17 $260 Put

Vol: 3,325

OI: 250

Vol/OI: 13.3x

IV: 112.9%

Notional: ~$38.6M

Intent: Large-scale downside hedge or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish hedge/spec) vs. sold (volatility sale)

Read-through: Given the extreme IV (112.9%) and massive premium paid, this is almost certainly a long put purchase for catastrophic protection or a leveraged bearish bet. The size and strike ($260, ~77% above spot) signal deep concern about a major downside event.

ORCL 6/18 $270 Put

Vol: 1,010

OI: 151

Vol/OI: 6.7x

IV: 80.4%

Notional: ~$27.4M

Intent: Extension of bearish hedge into Q2

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) vs. sold (vol sale)

Read-through: Follows the same pattern as the $260P but with a longer-dated (June) expiry. The high IV and large premium again point to long put buying, suggesting the bearish outlook extends beyond April.

ORCL 4/17 $250 Put

Vol: 1,060

OI: 129

Vol/OI: 8.2x

IV: 137.2%

Notional: ~$11.2M

Intent: Additional layer of OTM put protection

Dual read: Bought (bearish) vs. sold (vol sale)

Read-through: Another massive premium, high-IV put purchase. The cluster of activity at $250P, $260P, and $270P across April and June forms a clear pattern of institutional demand for far OTM puts, not retail speculation.

ORCL 4/10 $133 Put

Vol: 697

OI: 110

Vol/OI: 6.3x

IV: 52.1%

Notional: ~$9.4M

Intent: Near-term, closer-to-spot protective put buying

Dual read: Bought (directional hedge) vs. sold (covered put write)

Read-through: Strike is ~9.5% below spot, inside the 10-day expected move. This is a more traditional, cheaper hedge against a near-term drop, contrasting with the extreme OTM bets. It adds a tactical bearish layer.

ORCL 4/2 $149 Call

Vol: 2,316

OI: 753

Vol/OI: 3.1x

IV: 41.5%

Notional: ~$2.3M (est. premium)

Intent: Short-term upside speculation or delta hedge against put positions

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) vs. sold (covered call/hedge)

Read-through: The only notable call flow. Given the overwhelming put premium, this could be a speculative long call against the bearish tide, or more likely, part of a complex hedge (e.g., call bought to offset delta from massive long puts). Size is dwarfed by put activity.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Only notable is $149C 4/2.

Put additions: Massive OTM puts at $250-$300 (Apr/June). Tactical puts at $133-$144 (Apr).

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$4.2M) suggests pinning near $147, but flow is deeply bearish. GEX is likely dominated by near-dated, ATM options, while bearish flow is in OTM, longer-dated puts.

OI clusters: Major OI clusters: OTM Calls at $170-$300 (bullish bets/leaps), OTM Puts at $110-$118 (long-term hedges). The $118 Put wall (15,377 OI) is the gamma flip estimate, a key support level.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming. The multi-million dollar purchases of $250P, $260P, $270P are textbook institutional hedging against a major downside move. This is 'portfolio insurance' or a direct bearish bet.

Max pain context: Spot ($147.11) is pinned exactly at the nearest max pain ($147). This reinforces the GEX pinning narrative for the very near term, but longer-dated max pain rises sharply ($162.5 by 4/17), suggesting structural bullish expectations are being hedged.

Signal vs Noise

~The $95 Call with $2M net premium is likely a dividend-related trade or a deep ITM call buy-write, not a directional signal.

~High volume in OTM $200+ Calls in the OI list are likely long-dated leaps (2026-2027) and not part of today's active flow.

~The $149 Call 4/2 activity could be a short-term gamma scalp or part of a spread given the pinning at max pain, not a pure bullish conviction bet.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Institutional 'fat tail' hedging is dominant. Massive premium paid for OTM puts ($250-$300) signals deep concern over a potential crash or major downside event.

📌Spot is pinned at max pain ($147) with positive GEX, creating near-term mean reversion pressure, but this is overwhelmed by the bearish flow signal.

🎯Key levels to watch: Breakdown below $144 (near-term put support) and the major gamma flip/OI support at $118.

🔄The flow is a classic divergence: long-term bullish positioning (high OI in OTM calls, rising max pain) is being aggressively hedged with short-to-medium term puts.

Read the Flow analysis for ORCL for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.