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OPEN

Opendoor Technologies IncClose $4.57EOD only
Max Pain
$4.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.18
3.9% from close
Price Gap
-0.07
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.21
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects OPEN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
OPEN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-IV, pinning regime with dealers net-long gamma (GEX +$16.3M) centered around a heavy $5 call wall. Best near-term strategy: premium selling (short strangle/condor) into the 3-day event to collect rich ATM IV given expected move $0.32 (±7.0%) for 2026-04-10. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds EM bounds and bypasses dealer pinning (gap risk to the upside given strong call interest).

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 flow bullish; +0.5 spot 1.1% above MP
Most important: Watch the $5.00 call OI / premium flow — it’s the dominant pin magnet and will shape short-term pinning and dealer delta-hedge behavior.
📌Max pain concentrated at $4.50 for the next two near expiries (2026-04-10 & 2026-04-17); dealers likely to hedge toward that band.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (ATM 96.9% for 2026-04-10)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$16.3M concentrated at $5.00 and $4.50)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net premium $253K; heavy call premium to $5.00: $292,618)
Spot vs MP
Above (Spot $4.55 vs near-term MP $4.50/$4.50)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (TBD) (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (3d): 70¢ ($4.23 - $4.87) [±7.0%] (nearest short-term EM)
  • 2026-04-17 (10d): 53¢ ($4.03 - $5.08) [±11.5%]

IV Setup

Term structure: Very steep near-term IV: 2026-04-10 ATM 96.9% then falls to 87.7% by 2026-04-17 and 84.2% by 2026-04-24 (front-loaded event vol).

Crush estimate: ~9 vol pts (ATM 96.9% -> ~87.7% over next expiry window) — meaning large realized move needed to justify buying premium across the event.

Skew: Put/Call flow heavily skewed toward calls (P/C OI 0.29, net premium heavily to $5 calls). Puts are cheaper relative to calls in premium flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat EPS estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided (historical move magnitudes not in dataset)

Directional bias: Mild upside bias on earnings given frequent beats and call-skewed flow

Key Levels

1$5.00 call OI wall
2$4.50 max pain / EM guardrail
3EM: $4.23-$4.87 (next 2 days)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $5.00 call premium: Call $339,378 vs Put $46,760 (net $292,618) in top premium flow.

Large bullish/options-driven bets anchored at $5.00; dealers likely short call deltas there and will delta-hedge, producing pinning toward $5.00 if the market trades in that band.

GEX concentration +$5.2M at $5.00 (+9.9% from spot) and +$486K at $4.50 (-1.1% from spot).

Dealer gamma is concentrated above spot which supports pinning around $4.50–$5.00 and will dampen intraday moves inside that band.

Strategies

Short strangle (earnings credit play)
Sell 2026-04-10 4.50C / 4.00P (use tight sizing and defined stop)
Credit: $0.24-$0.30
Max loss: Unlimited on upside / large on downside (gap risk)
Max gain: $0.30
BE: Lower BE 3.76 / Upper BE 4.80 (approx, using collected credit)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before 2026-04-10 if IV remains near current levels (~97% ATM).
High short-dated IV and strong dealer pinning + concentrated call OI make selling premium attractive for limited time if you can tolerate gap risk.
Outperforms: Stock remains inside the 2-day EM $4.23-$4.87 and dealers’ pinning holds.
Underperforms: Guidance or surprise causes a gap beyond EM (particularly above $5 where call OI wall sits).
Long 4.50 straddle (direction + vol)
Buy 2026-04-10 4.50C + 4.50P (ATM-ish straddle)
Max loss: $0.60
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approximately 4.50 ± premium paid (example: if premium ~0.60 then BE ~3.90 / 5.10)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if you expect an outsized beat/miss or IV refuses to collapse pre-event.
This plays the high-IV, event-driven jump but requires a move larger than the EM or a pre-event IV increase to justify the debit.
Outperforms: Actual move > EM by a material amount (>~30% larger than 2-day EM) or guidance causes vol spike.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $4.50 and IV collapses post-announcement (paying high theta with insufficient move).
Directional call (upside convexity)
Buy 2026-04-17 5.00C (1-week expiry) as a cheap asymmetric upside flyer
Debit: $0.08-$0.18
Max loss: $0.18
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $5.18
Trigger: Buy after open post-earnings if stock shows follow-through above $4.87 and IV for first weekly expiry drops (keep position small).
Leveraged upside exposure concentrated at the large $5.00 call interest — inexpensive one-week expiry allows capture of momentum while limiting time decay relative to multi-week buys.
Outperforms: Post-earnings momentum pushes price through $5.00 (the call OI wall) and follow-through continues into next week.
Underperforms: Pinning holds and price fails to break the $5.00 area; IV crush further reduces call value.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High — guidance or surprise can gap price beyond the EM and blow out short premium positions, particularly to the upside where call OI is concentrated.
!IV crush impact: Expect ~9 vol-point front-to-near-term IV drop; long premium must overcome IV collapse plus move to be profitable.
!Liquidity: Option liquidity is decent at key strikes ($5.00, $4.50) but smaller elsewhere; wideners on fills and slippage possible for large size.
!Sizing: Given GEX concentration and potential for rapid dealer delta-hedge feedback, keep position size small relative to portfolio and define stop-losses for credit trades.

What to Watch

?Intraday premium flow into $5.00 calls (large buys increase upside gap risk)
?IV trajectory into 2026-04-10 (front-week IV: 96.9%); a drop pre-event lowers straddle value
?Spot vs EM rails: movement outside $4.23-$4.87 in next 48 hours changes best strategy
?Unusual put flow at $4.00 for 2026-04-24 (volume spike flagged) — could indicate tail protection or directional hedging
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.