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OPEN

Opendoor Technologies IncClose $4.30EOD only
Max Pain
$4.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.34
7.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.22
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects OPEN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
OPEN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 7, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings confirmed for 5/7 (38 days out). IV remains extremely elevated (99% for May 15 expiry), making IV crush plays the primary opportunity. The stock trades below max pain with significant put OI at $4, creating a defined risk/reward for short premium strategies. The best approach is selling strangles/condors to harvest premium ahead of the expected crush.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 high IV & clear crush setup; +0.5 earnings date confirmed via term structure; -0.5 low liquidity
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the May 15 expiry (99% IV), confirming earnings pricing and providing a high-IV target to sell.
📅Earnings date inferred as 5/7. May 15 expiry IV kink (99%) confirms event pricing.
💰IV >99% in earnings expiry offers exceptional premium to sell via defined-risk spreads.
⚖️Regime shifted from 'Trending' to 'Pinning' (GEX now +$3.7M). Dealers may dampen moves near $4.48.
🛡️Massive $4 Put OI (38,977) creates a strong support/resistance level. Breach could accelerate moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 103%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$3.7M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-0.1M, P/C 0.25)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 10.3% (spot $4.48 vs MP $5)
Gamma flip: ~$4.00 — Gamma flip estimate ~$4. Below this, positive GEX suggests dealers may dampen moves, but large put OI at $4 could act as a magnet.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (38 days)estimated (provided EPS date) & term structure confirmation

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (33d): ±$0.92 (20.4%)
  • 5/08 (40d): ±$0.28 (6.4%)
  • 5/15 (47d): ±$1.25 (27.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated with a distinct kink at May 15 (99% IV) vs surrounding expiries (86-89%). This confirms earnings are priced into that weekly expiry.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV likely drops 25-35 vol points from the 99% peak, back toward 65-75% range.

Skew: Mixed skew. Heavy OI at $4 Put (38,977) and $7 Call (33,425). Unusual put buying in May ($4P) and April ($3.5P).

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1$4.00 (Major Put OI: 38,977)
2$4.50 (Current Spot, Apr 2 MP)
3$5.00 (Near-term Max Pain)
4EM 5/15: $3.50 - $5.50

Flow Highlights

Large bearish premium flow at $10P (-$250K net) and $8P (-$48K). Bullish flow at $5C (+$158K).

Institutional hedging via OTM puts contrasts with speculative call buying at $5. Mixed signals with a defensive tilt.

Unusual $4.00 PUT 5/01 volume (209 vol vs 31 OI, 6.7x).

Earnings-period put buying for protection or directional bet at key $4 support level.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $3.50 PUT / Buy $3.00 PUT & Sell $5.50 CALL / Buy $6.00 CALL, 5/15 expiration.
Credit: $0.25-$0.35
Max loss: $0.75
Max gain: $0.25
BE: $3.75 / $5.25
Trigger: Enter 3-4 weeks before earnings (mid-April).
Defined-risk way to sell extreme IV at the earnings expiry. Wings set outside the 5/15 EM ($3.50-$5.50) for a buffer. Captures full IV crush.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $3.50-$5.50 through earnings; IV crushes from ~99%.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond condor wings ($3.50 or $5.50).
Bull Put Spread (Targeting Support)
Sell $4.00 PUT / Buy $3.50 PUT, 5/01 expiration.
Credit: $0.15-$0.22
Max loss: $0.35
Max gain: $0.15
BE: $3.85
Trigger: On any bounce from $4.40-$4.50 area.
Capitalizes on the massive put OI wall at $4 which may act as a support magnet. Uses front-month (5/01) high IV for credit, but exits before earnings to avoid event risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $4.00; max pain at $5 and positive GEX provide support.
Underperforms: Stock breaks and closes below $4.00, triggering large put OI.
Long Put Calendar Spread (Volatility Speculation)
Buy $4.00 PUT 5/15 / Sell $4.00 PUT 4/24.
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: High if IV differential expands
BE: Complex - best near $4 at 5/15 expiry with high IV
Trigger: If near-term (4/24) IV dips while 5/15 IV remains elevated.
A pure volatility play betting the IV gap between the earnings expiry (99%) and the pre-earnings expiry (85%) will widen. Benefits from pinning near the high-OI $4 strike.
Outperforms: IV term structure steepens further into earnings; stock stays near $4.
Underperforms: IV crushes uniformly or stock moves far from $4.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Extreme. Low-priced, low-liquidity stock. 5/15 EM is ±28% ($1.25).
!IV Crush Impact: Severe. IV >99% in earnings expiry will collapse, making long premium strategies at that date very dangerous.
!Liquidity: Poor. Wide bid/ask spreads expected, especially on wings. Use limit orders.
!Sizing: Must be small. Percentage moves are large relative to premium collected. Favor defined-risk spreads.

What to Watch

?IV evolution in May 15 expiry as earnings approach.
?Spot price action relative to $4.00 support and $5.00 max pain.
?Any unusual volume in weekly options expiring 5/8 or 5/15.
?Official confirmation of 5/7 earnings date and time.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.