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OPEN

Opendoor Technologies IncClose $4.30EOD only
Max Pain
$4.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.34
7.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.20
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.22
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects OPEN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
OPEN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for April 7, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~May 7, 39 days out. IV is extremely elevated (90%+), making IV crush plays attractive. However, the stock is low-priced, illiquid, and trades far below max pain, increasing gap risk. The best strategy is a short premium play targeting the expected move.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV & clear crush setup; -1 low liquidity; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV >90% across front months provides significant premium to sell, but low liquidity and a $4.51 spot price make position sizing and execution critical.
⚠️Earnings date 5/07 is estimated from EPS data. Monitor for official confirmation.
💰Extreme IV (>90%) across front months offers high premium to sell.
📉Stock trades at $4.51, 9.7% below max pain ($5). Negative GEX suggests downside moves could accelerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Extreme (IV 105%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$1.8M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$0.9M, P/C 0.20)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 9.7% (spot $4.51 vs MP $5)
Gamma flip: ~$4.00 — Gamma flip estimate ~$4. Below this, negative GEX suggests dealers amplify moves downward.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (39 days)estimated (provided EPS date)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (33d): ±$0.95 (20.9%)
  • 5/08 (40d): ±$0.81 (17.9%)
  • 5/15 (47d): ±$1.33 (29.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated & flat near-term (90-94% through May), no sharp kink yet as earnings are ~39 days out.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV likely drops 20-30 vol points, back toward 60-70% range.

Skew: Mixed skew. Heavy OI at $4 Put and $7 Call. Unusual activity shows high IV in near-term OTM calls ($1, $3 strikes).

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1$4.00 (Major Put OI: 37,904)
2$5.00 (Max Pain, Call Flow)
3$7.00 (Major Call OI: 33,531)
4EM 5/01: $3.57 - $5.46

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow into $5C (+$402K net), $7C (+$245K), and $4.50C (+$244K).

Strong institutional or speculative bets on a move toward/above $5-$7.

Unusual $1.00 CALL 4/02 volume (148x OI) at 700% IV.

Extreme lottery ticket buying for a potential massive rally, signaling speculative sentiment.

Strategies

Short Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $3.50 PUT & $5.50 CALL, 5/15 expiration.
Credit: $0.55-$0.70
Max loss: Unlimited (defined by strikes)
Max gain: $0.63
BE: $2.87 / $6.13
Trigger: Enter 2-3 weeks before confirmed earnings date (mid-April).
Sells extreme IV with wide wings (~$1.00 outside 33-day EM). 5/15 expiry captures earnings and allows time for crush.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $3.50-$5.50 through earnings; IV crushes from ~94%.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond strangle wings; sustained high IV.
Bull Put Spread (Flow-Aligned)
Sell $4.00 PUT / Buy $3.00 PUT, 5/01 expiration.
Credit: $0.25-$0.35
Max loss: $0.75
Max gain: $0.30
BE: $3.70
Trigger: On any pullback toward $4.40.
Capitalizes on bullish premium flow and targets the key $4 support level. Defined risk suits low-priced stock.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $4.00; bullish flow and max pain at $5 provide support.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $4.00, triggering large put OI and negative gamma.
Long Straddle (Low-Probability Speculation)
Buy $4.50 Straddle, 5/08 expiration.
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$3.70 / ~$5.30 (approx, depends on IV)
Trigger: Only if IV dips below 80% before a potential pre-earnings ramp.
A low-conviction, high-cost gamble. Only viable if buying low IV before a spike. Current high IV makes entry poor.
Outperforms: Stock moves >±20% (exceeding EM); IV expands into earnings.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $4.50; IV crushes heavily post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. Low-priced, low-liquidity stock can gap violently. 33-day EM is ±21% ($0.95).
!IV Crush Impact: Major. IV >90% will collapse post-event, punishing long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Poor. Low volume & OI relative to large-caps. Wide bid/ask spreads likely.
!Sizing: Must be small. Notional value is low, but percentage moves are large. Use defined-risk spreads.

What to Watch

?Confirmation of earnings date (est. 5/07).
?IV trajectory in May expirations as date approaches.
?Spot price action relative to $4 gamma flip and $5 max pain.
?Unusual activity in weekly options post-date confirmation.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.