Earnings Verdict
Earnings 70d out; 100% beat rate. Low near-term event risk, but elevated skew suggests tail hedging.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 8.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Large deep OTM put buying in June (174, 178, 160) signals bearish hedge, not earnings-specific.
⚠️Deep OTM puts (174/178/160) with IV >190% – tail hedge or bearish conviction.
📈0dte $87 call block: 13x vol/OI – short gamma play?
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,315 (19.6% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (70 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$3.18 (3.6%)
- 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$6.38 (7.3%)
- 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$8.20 (9.4%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep upward: 2d IV ~52%, 1w IV 54-69%, Jun18 deep OTM puts 175-226%.
Crush estimate: Minimal near-term; event far out (70d), crush negligible.
Skew: Put skew extreme; deep OTM puts IV >200% vs ATM calls ~50%.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: N/A (event far out)
Directional bias: Bullish bias from 100% beat rate, but spot below max pain.
Key Levels
1$70.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $83.88/$90.23; 1w $80.68/$93.43
3Max pain pins: $95 (2026-05-15); $90 (2026-05-22); $89 (2026-05-29)
Flow Highlights
Aggressive call buying at $87 (2d): 4816 vol vs 366 OI, 13x ratio.
Short-term call interest; may reflect gamma scalp or bullish positioning.
Heavy put buying in Jun18 strikes: 174, 178, 160 with high vol/OI and extreme IV.
Likely tail hedges or directional bearish bet, not earnings-driven.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Earnings 70 days away; near-term price action driven by gamma and flow, not event.
!High IV skew implies tail risk perception; put open interest heavy below $85.
!Spot below EM guardrails ($83.88-$90.23) suggests bearish bias near-term.
What to Watch
?Gamma flip level near $70 (put OI concentration).
?Max pain pins: $95 (2d), $90 (1w) – resistance levels.
?Unusual put activity in Jun18: monitor for unwinding.