Earnings Verdict
Earnings on 2026-04-22 (16 days out). IV elevated at 67.7% for 4/24, offering crush play. Historical beat rate 100% with average move 5.0% vs EM 12.0% — stock under-moves. Key risk: negative gamma regime amplifies gaps.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/24 (67.7% vs 52.9% pre) confirms earnings date; stock historically under-moves EM by 7%.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-04-22 (16 days out), EM ±12.0%
📊Historical: 100% beat rate, 4/4 gap up, average move 5.0% vs EM 12.0%
⚠️Negative gamma regime (GEX -$8.3M) — moves accelerate below $100
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 59.8%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$8.3M)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem -$81.8M, P/C vol 1.54)
Spot vs MP
Below (spot $102.42 vs max pain $105)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, dealers amplify moves; above, they dampen.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-22 (16 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$12.25 (12.0%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 (67.7% vs 52.9% pre-earnings)
Crush estimate: ~15 vol pts, back to ~53%
Skew: Puts richer (P/C vol 1.54), but OI balanced (P/C OI 0.88).
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Actual 5.0% vs EM 12.0% — under-moves by 7%
Directional bias: 4/4 gap up post-earnings
Key Levels
1$105 (max pain, GEX +$722K)
2$100 (gamma flip, GEX +$239K)
3$110 (max pain 4/17, GEX +$740K)
4EM: $90.17-$114.67
Flow Highlights
Heavy $178P 6/18 buying (1,107 vol vs 190 OI, 5.8x)
Tail hedge or bearish bet far OTM
$103C 4/10 unusual (560 vol vs 120 OI, 4.7x)
Near-term upside speculation
Strategies
Iron condor
Sell $90.17/$85P x $114.67/$120C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings
Historical under-move (5.0% vs 12.0% EM) supports selling premium; strikes calibrated to EM guardrails.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($90.17-$114.67)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$6
Long straddle
Buy $103 straddle 4/24
Trigger: Enter if IV <70% and VIX stable
100% beat rate and directional bias suggest upside surprise; IV crush risk high.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (>15.9%)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $105, IV crushes to 53%
Put credit spread
Sell $95P / Buy $90P 4/24
Trigger: Enter 5 days out if spot >$100
Historical gap-up bias; put floor at $85-$90 provides buffer; high put skew offers premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $95
Underperforms: Breaks below $90.17 EM support
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 12.0% EM but historical under-move reduces probability; negative gamma amplifies moves below $100.
!IV crush of ~15 vol pts could erode long premium strategies if move is muted.
!Liquidity: 739,734 OI and 68,055 volume — moderate but sufficient for retail sizes.
!Sizing: Keep positions small due to elevated IV and gamma regime.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into earnings — if >70%, favor credit spreads
?Spot vs $100 gamma flip for hedging pressure
?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $178P) for tail risk signals