base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19; override: base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Front-end IV high, dips at 17d, then rises; elevated across curve
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+117.0M)
Gamma flip: ~$12.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,302 (12.4% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put wall $12-$12 (48k OI), call wall $15-$20; max pain $14
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $12.50/$10.50 put wing and $17.00/$19.00 call wing
Neutral play exploiting high IV by selling wings; max profit if NOK stays between $12.50-$17.00.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaches $12.50 or $17.00; adjust wings if IV expands. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (116%).; long_call: Wide spread (69%).
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $12.00/$10.50 put spread
Bullish short put spread on NOK; profits if spot stays above $12 at expiry.
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $11.90; roll if IV crushes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (116%).
!High IV regime; premium attractive but IV may crush
!Gamma flip at $12; breach could accelerate move
!Event risk near 6/26 expiration