base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.7% from MP
Term structure: Front-end elevated (2dte ~124%), backwardation into 30dte (72.85%), then slight contango.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+128.0M)
OI concentrations: Call OI wall at $15-$20; max pain pins $15 (2dte), $14 (8dte). No significant put OI below spot.
#1Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $15.00/$16.00 call spread
Sell $15/$16 call spread to capitalize on elevated volatility and bearish sentiment ahead of earnings.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% profit or if spot breaks above $14. Avoid holding through earnings.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $13.00/$12.00 put wing and $15.00/$16.00 call wing
Sell $13/$12 put and $15/$16 call wings for a net credit, expecting spot to stay within range after earnings.
Mgmt: Manage at 21 DTE or 50% profit; adjust if spot approaches either wing.
!Spot far from max pain (10.7% below) – potential for sharp move
!High front-end IV (124% 2dte) – time decay favorable but vega risk high