thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNOKReports

NOK

Nokia Corporation SponsoredClose $13.01EOD only
Max Pain
$14.00
Next expiry Jul 2, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.95
7.3% from close
Price Gap
+0.99
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
58
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.32
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
NOK Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias targeting $14 resistance, supported by strong GEX/flow alignment and pinning near MP. Upside capped by resistance $13.50-$14.74; downside supported by gamma flip at $12.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Strong GEX alignment +2, pinning +1, bullish flow, spot below MP -0.5, VIX +1.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, pinning, high vol
Conflicts: Spot below MP, gamma flip $12, resistance $14
📈Bullish GEX $111M
⚠️Gamma flip risk $12
🎯Max pain $14 resistance

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high, VIX 17.65, elevated vol regime
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $111M, pinning near $14, flip at $12
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below MP, potential mean reversion up
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries over 2-3 weeks with pinning/support

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$12.26$13.79
Within $12.26-$13.79, bias to resistance
Next 2 weeks
$11.31$14.74
Range $11.31-$14.74, key $14 resistance

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $14 (2026-07-02); $14 (2026-07-10); $13 (2026-07-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $12.26/$13.79
Support: $12.00 · $11.31
Resistance: $13.50 · $14.00 · $14.74
Gamma flip: ~$12.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 50,344 (7.9% below spot)
Structural: Support $12 (gamma flip) $11.31; resistance $13.50 $14 $14.74

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+111.1M

DEX: +111.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$12 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 50,344 (7.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM GEX +$111M, DEX +111.6M shares, gamma flip ~$12

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.65

Term structure: Steep near events

Skew: Call spreads at $14 expiry

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $12.1M bullish; call volume dominates with P/C vol ratio 0.25.

Directional prints: 79.3 call 12.5 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 9 suggests aggressive buying; preferred as bought calls for near-term upside. 69.1 call 13 ITM 2026-07-02 — High volume 11.8k with moderate vol/OI; likely bought calls targeting upside beyond $13. 67.6 call 12.5 ITM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 9.4 indicates opening interest; interpreted as bullish positioning for weekly.

Unusual: call 1 ITM 2026-07-02 — Extreme IV 2462% and deep ITM; likely distressed or liquidity trade, possibly bought for delta hedging. 92 call 33 OTM 2026-12-18 — Far OTM long-dated call with low OI; speculative bullish bet with low probability. 82.2 put 12.5 OTM 2026-07-24 — High vol/OI 6.1 on put side despite bullish flow; could be hedging or bearish bet, but put volume relatively low.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside gamma flip to $12
!Resistance at $14 (max pain)

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-24 $14.00/$16.50 call spread
Why now: Call volume dominates, pinning near MP $14. Bull call spread caps risk while leveraging upside.
Upside capped at sold strike; if stock fails to move, premium decays; resistance at $14 may cap.
Bullish risk reversalModerate
Buy 2026-07-24 $14.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $11.50 put
Why now: Earnings catalyst and bullish flow suggest upside; risk reversal allows cost-efficient upside exposure.
If stock drops below short put strike, losses can be significant; short put may be assigned below $12. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (52%).
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $15.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $14.50 call
Why now: Earnings vol premium high; calendar decays near-term while maintaining upside.
If stock rallies strongly before earnings, short leg may be exercised; back-month liquidity lower.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread $14/$16.5
Buy 2026-07-24 $14.00/$16.50 call spread
Leverages upside to $14+ with capped risk, supported by call dominance and near-term pinning.
Why this play: Best risk/reward with defined upside and downside; strong liquidity and alignment with bullish flow and earnings catalyst.
Debit: $0.45-$0.54
Max loss: $0.54
BE: $14.54
Mgmt: Exit near $14 resistance or hold through earnings; stop loss if underlying breaks $12.
Traders seeking controlled bullish exposure with clear risk parameters.
#2
Call Diagonal $15/$14.5
Sell 2026-07-17 $15.00 call / buy 2026-07-31 $14.50 call
Sells near-term theta, buys later expiration for earnings drift.
Why this play: Captures vol premium decay while maintaining upside; good liquidity and defined risk.
Debit: $0.45-$0.55
Max loss: $0.55
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll if short strike tested; close before earnings if premium eroded.
Traders expecting moderate upside with time decay benefit.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-24 $14.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $11.50 put
Cost-efficient bullish play with put sale funding call, but carries assignment risk.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential but high risk and low liquidity; suitable only for aggressive traders.
Debit: $0.35-$0.43
Max loss: $11.50
BE: $11.50
Mgmt: Monitor closely; close if underlying nears $12 invalidation or earnings risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (52%).
Aggressive traders with high conviction and ability to manage pin risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFPrice holds above $13.50 and the 2026-07-24 $14/$16.50 call spread premium is between $0.45 and $0.54 → Enter the bull call spread
Exit Triggers
EXITPrice closes below $12.00 (gamma flip support) → Exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias targeting $14 resistance, supported by call flow and gamma flip at $12. Main play: bull call spread $14/$16.5 entry near $0.50. Invalidation below $12. Earnings catalyst on 2026-07-23. Manage volatility with call diagonal as secondary if needed.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.