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NOK

Nokia Corporation SponsoredClose $14.82EOD only

Max Pain

$13.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.00

6.7% from close

Price Gap

-1.32

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.33

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

NOK Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by positive dealer gamma ($130M) and bullish flow. Spot near $14 max pain for 2026-06-18 expiry creates pinning support. VIX 16 provides favorable vol. Near-term resistance at $14 may cap, but bias upward with support at $13.22.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive +1 spot near MP +1 VIX 16 = 9

Supports: Positive dealer gamma, bullish flow, spot at MP, VIX 16
Conflicts: Resistance at $14 max pain, QQQ -1.9% market weakness

🛡️Strong dealer gamma $130M and spot at MP $14 provide pinning support, limiting downside.

📈Bullish flow and positive GEX alignment suggest upward bias despite market weakness.

🎯Max pain $14 for 2026-06-18 expiry is key resistance; breakout requires catalyst.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Low vol regime, IV likely modest relative to VIX 16.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime, GEX +$130M positive, $14 max pain pin for near expiries.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow, net premium positive, call-heavy.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at MP (~$14), within 0.1% per confidence breakdown.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pinning at $14 for 2026-06-18 expiry and strong dealer gamma support create event-driven directional bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$13.22$14.74

Range $13.22-$14.74; bias upward toward $14 resistance with pinning support.

Next 1 week

$12.54$15.41

Range $12.54-$15.41; support $12.54, resistance $14 and $15; positive gamma supports drift higher.

Next 2 weeks

$12.16$15.80

Range $12.16-$15.8; structural support $12.16, resistance $15.8; near-term pinning caps but longer bias up.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $14 (2026-06-18); $14 (2026-06-26); $15 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $13.22/$14.74; 1w $12.54/$15.41

Support: $12.16

Resistance: $14.00 · $15.00 · $15.80

Structural: Support $12.16 (2-week low); resistance $14 (max pain), $15, $15.8. EM guardrails: 2d $13.22/$14.74, 1w $12.54/$15.41. No gamma flip risk.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+130.2M

DEX: +135.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX $+130.2M (positive), DEX +135.1M shares. Strong buyer support. No gamma flip within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NOK IV likely elevated vs VIX 16 due to high vol regime, but relative value may be attractive as VIX is moderate.

Term structure: No explicit data, but near-term expiries likely elevated due to pinning event; backwardation possible post-expiry.

Skew: Skew likely call-heavy due to bullish flow. Consider selling puts at support for premium, or buying calls but cautious on vega.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $12.8M, put/call vol ratio 0.33, signals strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 73.8 call 14.5 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 19k (3x OI) aggressive call buying; bullish institutional positioning. 267.2 call 10.5 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 451 (3.7x OI) deep ITM call; high IV suggests distressed buying or closing.

Unusual: 77.7 put 13 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 6k (1.7x OI) put amid heavy calls; likely hedging or bearish tail. call 2 ITM 2026-06-18 — Vol 586 (2x OI) deep ITM call; extreme IV, unusual low strike. 403.1 call 2 ITM 2026-07-17 — Vol 357 (2x OI) deep ITM call; pattern similar to prior.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold $13.22 support could trigger stop losses and accelerate decline.

!Max pain pin at $14 may cap upside and cause range-bound action.

!Market weakness (QQQ -1.9%) could spill over despite defensive positioning.

!Earnings or macro event could break pinning and increase volatility.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $17.50/$19.50 call spread Why now: Flow bullish, dealer gamma positive, earnings catalyst; use spread to cap cost.	Capped upside if stock stalls; time decay if no move above short strike. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).; short_call: Wide spread (51%).
Put credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $12.00/$10.50 put spread Why now: Max pain $14 provides support; bullish flow; credit strategy with defined risk.	If support breaks, max loss is width of spread. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (133%).
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-24 $17.50 call / sell 2026-07-24 $12.00 put Why now: Bullish flow and positive gamma; risk reversal captures upside with put sale financing.	If stock drops below put strike, assigned; undefined downside risk on short put. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $12.00/$10.50 put spread

Sell put spread at $12/$10.50 to collect premium, betting stock stays above $12.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias and max pain support, defined risk, credit income.

Credit: $0.30-$0.36

Max loss: $1.14

BE: $11.64

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if stock breaks $13.22 support. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (133%).

Income-focused traders seeking defined risk with high win probability.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $17.50/$19.50 call spread

Buy $17.50/$19.50 call spread to express bullish view with limited cost.

Why this play: Direct upside play on earnings catalyst with cost cap, but low liquidity.

Debit: $0.24-$0.30

Max loss: $0.30

BE: $17.80

Mgmt: Exit at 50% loss or if stock invalidates below $12.16. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).; short_call: Wide spread (51%).

Traders expecting moderate upside move; defined risk and reward.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-24 $17.50 call / sell 2026-07-24 $12.00 put

Buy OTM call, sell OTM put to create asymmetric upside profile.

Why this play: Captures unlimited upside but carries large downside risk; can be funded by put sale.

Debit: $0.14-$0.18

Max loss: $12.00

BE: $12.00

Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $12.16; roll or close if breached. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (57%).

Aggressive traders comfortable with high risk and margin requirements.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNOK holds above $13.22 and put credit spread premium is $0.30-$0.36 → Enter put credit spread (sell $12/$10.50 put spread) per NOK_PUT_CREDIT_1.

Exit Triggers

EXITNOK reaches $14 resistance and put credit spread reaches 50% profit → Close put credit spread to capture gain.

EXITNOK breaks below $12.16 support → Close all positions (put credit spread, bull call spread, risk reversal).

Tactical Summary

Bullish NOK with positive dealer gamma. Support $12.16, resistance $14 (max pain). Top play: put credit spread (sell $12/$10.50) for defined risk. Entry above $13.22, target profit at $14, exit if $12.16 breaks. Avoid risk reversal unless high conviction.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.