Term structure: Steeply inverted (102% for 2-day, ~39% for 45 DTE).
Spot vs MP: At max pain ($53.00)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$7.3M)
OI concentrations: Major Put walls at $55 (27K OI), $57.50 (26K OI), $60 (22K OI). Major Call walls at $75 (30K OI), $77.50 (25K OI).
#1put spread
Sell $50/$47.5 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV provides excellent credit. Strike is below major put OI walls ($55, $57.50) and near-term max pain cluster ($53). 45 DTE avoids the extreme IV of the front week.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll down/out if $50 is breached. Exit entirely on a close below $48.50.
#2iron condor
Sell $50/$47.5P x $58/$60C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Captures high IV on both sides. Short strikes bracket the near-term max pain ($53) and align with OI concentrations ($50 put, $58/$60 call walls). Defined risk suits the trending GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out 2-3 weeks for a credit. Exit if spot moves beyond $47 or $61.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $50 put 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. High IV yields a 4-5% premium for 45 DTE. Strike is below heavy put OI, providing a buffer. Premium provides a 4% cushion from current price.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested. Be prepared to take assignment at $50 (effective cost $47.90).
#4call credit spread
Sell $58/$60 call spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Shorter DTE to capitalize on faster theta decay in still-high IV (~49.5%). Targets the $58 call OI wall and stays below the next major wall at $60. Defined risk protects against negative GEX trending moves.
Mgmt: Close at 75% profit due to shorter DTE. Exit on a close above $57.50.
!Negative GEX (-$7.3M): Dealers amplify price moves, increasing risk of trending action away from strikes.
!Extreme short-term IV (102% for 2-day): Weekly options are dangerously expensive; avoid selling naked short-dated premium.
!Heavy Put OI at $55, $57.50, $60: These levels act as magnets but could break under sustained selling pressure.
!Net Premium Flow heavily negative (-$164.7M): Suggests institutional put buying (possibly hedging), indicating underlying concern.
!Earnings estimated 2026-06-25 (~12 weeks out): No immediate threat, but plan to roll or close all positions at least 2 weeks prior.
!Unusual call buying in $45-$48 strikes for 4/02 expiration: May indicate a near-term bullish bet against the dominant put flow.